Posted on
6/8/2007 3:36:49 PM
Pick 4 Way to “Riches” on Belmont Stakes Day
By Mike Dempsey
The 139th running of the Belmont Stakes will be run on Saturday, and we are faced with a 6/5 morning line favorite and a short field of seven runners. That can make finding a way to increase our bankroll challenging.
Backing Curlin at 6/5 or even money certainly won’t get the pulse racing. I’m going to take a stand against him for the top spot while using him in a Pick 4 ticket.
There is a $1 million guaranteed Pick 4 on races 8-11, and making a small investment in the exotic wager appears to be the way to go Saturday.
Along with my win, exacta, and trifecta tickets, I’m going to lay out a modest Pick 4 ticket:
Starting in Race 8: $1: 1,2 / 1,6 / 2,3,8 / 3,4,6,7 = $48
If we can get to the Belmont Stakes, which is the final leg of the wager, and beat Curlin, we might just end up cashing a nice ticket.
If we miss, we can always try to get out in the final two races of the marathon 13 race card at Belmont Park on Saturday.
Here is a breakdown of the four races making up the late Pick 4:
BEL Race 8 Woody Stephens BC S. G2 (4:25 et)
#2 Deadly Dealer
#1 Bill Place
#8 Street Magician
#5 Sports Town
Analysis: #2 Deadly Dealer cuts back to a sprint here after setting the early fractions and weakening to finish third in the G2 Ark Derby trying to get nine furlongs. Came out, bumped a foe, and finished with some interest. Caught a main track at Oaklawn that was favoring outside stalkers and closers. Two back, this guy was a sharp winner against Alw-1 foes, earning a 104 Beyer. Pletcher barn is 20% winners moving runners from route to sprint. Figures to bounce back with a better effort here cutting back to one turn.
#1 Bill Place was a game winner of the G3 Bay Shore two back and regressed slightly last out in third place finish at Del Park in the Francis Labelle. Ramon picks up the call for Houghton who is subbing for Tony D. while he sits out 14 days for a couple of Bute positives at Del Park. Has the look of a live longshot here.
BEL Race 9 Acorn S. G1 (5:04 et)
#1 Dream Rush
#6 Boca Grande
#4 Cotton Blossom
#3 Christmas Kid
Analysis: #1 Dream Rush is coming off a sharp win last out in the G2 Nassau, earning the top last out speed fig in the effort. Filly has won 4 of 5 in her career, her lone loss coming against Alw-2 optional claimers where she had a lousy trip. She drew off to win by better than nine lengths last out and did it with something left in the tank. Has put in a couple of good works since her last outing and the extra furlong should not pose a problem. She has won both of her starts over the main track here, only our second pick also having a win over the surface. Only real knock is the likely short price.
#6 Boca Grande is coming off a sharp win last out in the G2 Comely at the Big A at today's one turn mile. She was off poorly two back at Gulfstream in the G2 Forward Gal. She has finished well every time out except two back and that effort was coming back off the bench. She looks ready for a top effort here for Shug barn.
BEL Race 10 Manhattan Hcp G1 (5:44 et)
#8 Cosmonaut
#2 English Channel
#3 Sky Conqueror
#7 Better Talk Now
Analysis: #8 Cosmonaut is coming off a good effort in a runner up finish in the G2 Dixie at Pimlico and makes his third start of his current form cycle here. Has been in the mix in G1 company in his career, finishing within three lengths of the winners three times. Has a win and a second over the Belmont turf and may finally have a breakthrough effort here. Among the top four in here, this guy figures to offer the best value for the top spot.
#2 English Channel put in the worst start of his career last out when shipped to Dubai. Was it the lack of drugs? I mean no lasix, what were you thinking? Has been freshened for Pletcher who is 22% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. Three time G1 winner figures to be ready off the bench but not sure the price is going to be very attractive here.
BEL Race 11 Belmont Stakes G1 (6:25 et)
#7 Rags to Riches
#4 CP West
#6 Hard Spun
#3 Curlin
Analysis: #3 Curlin may indeed be the best three year old in the country but making his third start in six weeks after not making his debut until February of this year, and this guy has done a lot of work in a short period of time and will be sitting Saturday afternoon at 6/5 or perhaps even money. Not exactly going to get the pulse racing.
So, we'll go with the filly #7 Rags to Riches, who comes in here off four wins in a row, last out taking the KY Oaks in impressive fashion going nine furlongs on the mud. This filly has improved her speed figs each time she goes out and going 1 /2 miles figures to earn a career top here. A.P. Indy out of the stakes winning mare Better Than Honour (2 for 8, $250K) breeds her to run all day. She is a half sis to last year's Belmont winner Jazil. She gets a little break in the weights, carrying five less pounds than the rest of the field. And most importantly she appears to be able to sit just about anywhere in the race.
#4 CP West earned a career top last out in his fourth place finish in the Preakness Stakes. Tracked the early pace from the outside and earned in the final furlong, beaten 5 1/2 lengths for the top spot. It was just his second start around two turns in his career. He is by Came Home out of a Dynaformer mare that was a stakes winner on turf. Does not hurt to have Zito in his corner, along with Edgar they spoiled the Smarty Parties in 2004 with Birdstone. Decent value if we see close to the 12/1 ML.
#6 Hard Spun was third last out in the Preakness and Pino may have moved too soon on this guy. Gets a positive jock switch to Gomez, who knows the racing strip here better than Pino, who rarely ventures out of his home base. The early pace should be reasonable which makes him an early pace threat in here.
#3 Curlin looked beaten in the Preakness and came back to score by a head and earned a career top Beyer (111). I'm thinking the gas tank may be close to "E" and if I'm dead wrong, we'll miss out on a $4.40 payoff.
Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2007 Belmont Stakes.