Posted on 12/31/2007 2:07:12 PM

Horse Betting Action – Stud Buster

By Brian Mulligan

It happens every single day at just about every track in America, but most horse bettors don’t isolate on the fact that cheaper horses can win and win at prices.

Just because a horse cost $150,000 or $200,000 doesn’t mean he can run. It just means he has the blood flowing through those veins that gives him a CHANCE to become good.

Cagey horse bettors know that Seattle Slew only cost $17.500. The venerable John Henry was sold many times, once for a mere $25,000 and Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence was once offered in a three-horse package for that same $25,000.

All became stars and it happens to this day.

Look at a recent runner-up at Hollywood Park. The horse cost $70,000, a modest price in this day and age considering that 2 in that same field last week cost $500,000 and $200,000 respectively.

Turkish Victory was making only his second start on the Cushion and was moved to soon to secure the place. This guy is sitting on a victory.

Another example sharp horse bettors can point to is the result of the Hollywood Starlet last week. The winner is classically bred, but the place horse, owned by famous chef Bobby Flay, cost a modest $115,000.

The proof of the pudding is the runner that completed the trifecta. The Golden Noodle is a Montana bred, and you don’t see that everyday in California.

By a sire that commands only a $6,500 stud fee, the Noodle was beaten less than 5 lengths for all the money.

The best horse racing bettors I know try to go against the grain. They shun high-priced yearlings, look for cheaper runners that have a foundation and good connections, and try to tee it up for a big score.

Along these same lines a recent story emanating from Scotland concerns stud fees and it found that the price paid for a stallion, does not reflect the winning potential of the runner and point to the fact that the price tag is a poor predictor of a prize runner.

This was no fly-by-night study either. Over 4,000 horses were used, and the conclusion was that the career earnings of a runner were more influenced by how a horse was trained, brought up and taught rather than by pure blood.

What this means to horse bettors is to try to resist the one-stop shopping technique used by many and avoid the ‘hot’ or ‘buzz’ horse of the track.

By the time a regally-bred runner gets to the races in California, the valets, the stable boys, even the parking lot attendants know who that horse is, and expectations are always high.

But more important to bettors is the intent that the connections have for a certain high-priced runner. In most cases, the reason the runner cost a lot of money is because he is bred to get the classic distance, and that means he could be up against it in his first couple of starts, probably in sprints.

For every high-priced runner that debuted in California over the years and won by daylight, I would be willing to gamble that 10 were bet off the board and are still running.

Clever bettors know it is very difficult to win at first asking, and when a horse has a bull’s-eye on his back because of his high price, it can become intrinsically tougher.

Bottom line, go with cheapsters and look for value.

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