Posted on
1/18/2008 5:05:03 PM
Bet on Horse Racing Trends – Pacing Yourself
By Brian Mulligan
This entire game is about what happened in the past. How much speed a horse showed last time, if the runner can get the distance, what the style of runner he is, etc. etc.
Sometimes, horseplayers, even successful horse bettors, forget that the game evolves but yet is all about how the race will unfold.
Pace is the game, believe it or not and it gets lost sometimes in the hype of the day, whether it is the Kentucky Derby or Breeders’ Cup Day.
Granted, the recently run San Fernando Stakes at Santa Anita was not one of the best renewals of the event.
The Grade 2 race only had 6 Graded winners in the line up and only one had won a Grade 1.
Horse bettors at Santa Anita this day forgot about the importance of how a race sets up, who is going to the front, who is going to be far back, and who figured to be midpack, and it was to everyone’s amazement as to the outcome.
Pace is about the way you come away from the gate, the way you accelerate, the wisdom to push and keep on going or to slow down and for the steady super smooth stride that is usually rewarded.
Clever horse racing bettors know that pace is the rhythm of the race. It is about the fundamental way each race unfolds and about the energy pattern of the early runners.
In the Fernando, favoritism went to the talented but perhaps overrated Tiago. As a brother to Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, his reputation preceded itself and that is why he was hammered down to 7-5 but he is the type of runner that should NEVER be that short on the board because he needs things to unfold perfectly in front of him because he has no speed.
The second choice in the race, Ravel, was mired on the rail and that probably cost him a slice as he ran 4th. The third choice in the race, and the ultimate tough beat loser was Johnny Eves, the pacesetter who would have been unsaddled if another pace threat, Air Commander, did not run the race of his life.
Johnny was the lone speed and everybody knew it but he still went off a solid 9-2 in the full field. His rider, David Flores, is having a stellar meet and he coaxed the runner around comfortably on the lead until the real race began at the top of the lane.
Smart horse bettors knew that if Johnny got away with a soft uncontested pace, he’d be strong and win at the end.
The trainer of Air Commander, Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, knew the same thing and he instructed his rider to stay close but keep the horse balanced.
The true evaluation of this or any race for horse bettors to pay attention to is how the race set up and what happened as the race unfolded.
The runners that one/two/three/four/ and five early in the race finished, one/two/five/eleven and third when it was over and then the fireworks started.
The margin was a nose, but Baffert was smiling as his charge got the head bob to the tune of $106.80.
What horse bettors can take from this result is to not get oversold about pedigree, about the hype horse, about the classy animal but to stick to basics and apply pace theories to every single race.
If sharp horse bettors do that, they may not always be rewarded with $100 mutuels, but they will win their share.
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