Up to Triple Crown Articles

posted November 27, 2007 at 17:31 in Triple Crown Articles

Most people, and most bettors, don’t like to admit a mistake. The jockey ran wide, the jock moved too early, the trainer didn’t have him fit would be the bettor’s lament.

A normal person may not own up to the fact that he bought a lemon on the car lot, and he will usually go to great lengths to excuse any faulty mechanism.

This year we have seen one of the worst buys in horse racing, but don’t look for the owners to admit they made a mistake.

Enter the $16 million purchase The Green Monkey.

He has gone favored in all three starts, basically because of his cost, and he has run third and 4th twice and has been beaten by 7 lengths or more every time.

It’s not the horse’s fault he cost so much but sharp bettors have to resist the temptation to buy the hype and just bet on high-priced runners.

Not all of them can run and cagey bettors are aware of all the purchase prices but look deeper into a runner’s pedigree before just backing the runner that was born with a silver spoon.

The Monkey has a moderate pedigree.

His young sire Forestry has had good success but is hardly proven in the long run.

His dam only won once in 11 starts and earned less than $50,000. Her basic claim to fame is that she is kin to double Grade 2 stakes winner Magicalmysterycat and a millionaire who has a padded Japan bankroll.

But clever horse bettors also know that the dam is strictly unproven herself. Her other foal to race has been out of the money twice.

The purchase history of The Green Monkey is that he was a victim of a bidding war between the sheikhs and high bidder Michael Tabor.

And just like most don’t like admitting mistakes, those ego driven people don’t like to be outbid either.

The truth of the matter, as most sharp bettors know, is that you can get value without spending millions.

The recently deceased John Henry was bought for $25,000 at his peak. And he won over $6 million.

Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew cost only $17,500 and he’s a legend.

Funny Cide, War Emblem, Real Quiet, Lil E Tee and Sunday Silence, all heroes the first Saturday at Churchill, cost only $116,000 combined.

That puts things in perspective.

 

This year alone stakes winner Teuflesberg was successful and he only cost 9 grand. Storm in May has won almost $500,000 and he only cost $16,000.

Clever bettors have to kick the tires, check under the hood and don’t just go for one-stop shopping by looking at a runner’s price tag.

Know this; a rich man could have bought the entire Kentucky Derby field this year for less than $16 million.

Over 20 Kentucky Derby winners since the days of President Kennedy were bought at auction and they cost a nice house over $6 million.

When bettors look at a field of juvenile first-time starters, they have to look long and hard beyond the price tags.

Just because a horse cost so much does not make him an instant success. Just as for every Ken Norton Jr., a Pro Bowler for years in the NFL and son of boxing legend Ken Norton and for the Manning brothers by sire and dad Archie, there are kids of Hall of Famers that just didn’t hit the gene lottery.

Instead of betting just over priced babies on the racetrack, clever bettors would be much better served by examining work patterns, how good the trainer is with young stock and by looking for a steady progression of improvement.

That is the way sharp bettors get paid.

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