Posted on 12/7/2007 5:53:11 PM

Horse Betting Trends – Padding Your Bankroll

By Michael Dempsey

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.

Saturday is a good day to hit Cajun Country. There are eleven stakes races today at Fair Grounds Race Course for Louisiana Champions Day.

Three quarterhorse and eight thoroughbred stakes make up the showcase program for state-breds.

We'll attempt to take down the Late Pick 4 with a $48 investment:

Fair Grounds Pick 4: Starting in Race 8: 1,2,6,7 1,5,8 1

2,3,11,12 = $48

Fair Grounds Race 8 Champions Day Juvenile S. (3:45 ct)

#7 Star Guitar 72

#6 Lee's Spirit 41

#2 Pantara Phantom 92

#1 Entry 51

#7 Star Guitar was a very impressive winner in his debut, making a strong middle move, taking over the lead heading for home, and drawing clear to win by 6 ¼ lengths. Was well backed in his debut,. Sent off at 21 in a field of 12. The colt wheels back fairly quickly which is a concern but he is in good hands with Stall barn that is 19% winners with second time starters and has a very attractive pedigree. The colt is by Quiet American out of a mare that has dropped four other foals to race, all winners, including a pair of stakes winners.

#6 Lee's Spirit beat three of these he faces again today when taking the La. bred Calcasieu Stakes last out for his third win in a row. The gelding's two wins since breaking his maiden at La. Downs have come over at Delta but he looks better with each start. Owns a solid pace profile throughout and just needs another good trip from just off the pace here.

Wagering

WIN: #7 to win at 52 or better.

EX: 6,7 1,2,6,7

TRI: 6,7 1,2,6,7 1,2,6,7,10,11

Fair Grounds Race 9 Champions Day Ladies Sprint S. (4:13 ct)

#8 Carl's Frosty Girl 41

#1 Leesa Lee 31

#5 Cutie Sabrina 201

#2 Ida Maria 72

#8 Carl's Frosty Girl is coming off a runner up finish last out going a mile in the state bred Magnolia off nearly a three month break. Filly won this race last year at 121, coming from off the pace for the score. Filly seldom runs a bad one,. Landing in the exacta in 11 of her 19 career starts. Mouton barn is 26% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint. Looks like this filly can repeat.

#1 Leesa Lee makes her first start since July where she finished in the runner up spot in the state bred Victoria. She has now landed in the exacta in five straight starts and has run pretty well off the bench in the past. Last year she ran in the La. Ladies going a route but she is proven at today's distance (8-3-3-2). Barn is 15% winners with horses coming back off a +90 day layoff.

Wagering

WIN: #8 to win at 52 or better.

EX: 1,8 1,2,5,8

TRI: 1,8 1,2,5,8 1,2,3,4,5,8

Fair Grounds Race 10 Champions Day Classic S. (4:43 ct)

#1 Costa Rising 95

#5 Southern Invasion 61

#2 Tortuga Straights 72

#4 Grand Mint 31

#1 Costa Rising looks like a standout in here. He comes in off a sharp win last out winning the state bred Gold Cup at Delta. Earned the top last out speed fig in the effort and this guy has back numbers that tower over the rest of the field in here. Three and four back at Evangeline Downs he popped Beyers of 115 and 118 winning a pair of races by a combined 30 lengths. Only real knock is going to be the short price.

#5 Southern Invasion gave our top pick a tussle in the early going last out but was no match for him in the stretch, finishing 2 ½ lengths behind the winner. The gelding has won 5 of 7 in his career and still may have some upside but this guy would need a career top to beat our top pick here.

WAGERING

WIN: #1 to win at 65 or better.

EX: 1 2,4,5

TRI: 1 2,4,5 2,3,4,5

Fair Grounds Champions Day Sprint S. (5:13 ct)

#12 Captain Buddy 61

#3 Heelbolt 101

#2 Tortuga Straits 41

#11 Zarb's Dancer 121

#6 Killing Me will be scratched and Storm Heat will be in this race but will race for purse money only thanks to a screw up in the racing secretaries office. Storm Heat will break from then 14 post and there will be no waging on him. #12 Captain Buddy gets the call here and comes into this race with seven career starts, landing in the exacta in each outing. Last out was a sharp winner against Alw-2 optional claimers which should set him up nicely for his first stakes win. His lone stakes try came two back, a runner up finish in the $55K Zydeco, which was an open stake.

#3 Heebolt beat our top pick last out in a state bred Alw-4L race. Colt returns off a two month freshening and has been flattered by how well our top pick ran in his last two starts. His 101 ML looks more than fair.

Wagering

WIN: #12 to win at 41 or better.

EX: 3,12 2,3,11,12

TRI: 2,3,12 2,3,11,12 2,3,7,11,12,13

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