Posted on
12/27/2007 11:19:02 AM
Bet on Horse Racing Trends – Dirt to Turf
By Brian Mulligan
Things are not always what they seem in this sport we love known as horse racing but smart horse bettors have to read in between the lines for clues that will produce profits.
The reality of the game is that not all horses are entered with optimum results in mind. Just like playing a schedule of basketball games for a smaller college, they have to sometimes travel and play bigger programs for the exposure, money and experience and in reality that have no valid shot at knocking off a top Division 1 school especially on their home turf.
Similarly, horses sometimes are entered in spots where they really have little chance of winning and the connections know it. They may know that the horse is not quite fit enough or that there are a few monsters in this particular race and that something very unusual will have to happen for their horse to cash.
But, what options do those stables have? Not many. They can either get their horse fit and give him a fighting edge by racing against tougher, or wait, sometimes for weeks on end, for a race to be written perfectly for their runner.
Cagey horse bettors have to project into the past performance what chances each horse really had and if that runner was being given the best chance in a particular spot.
One of the ways a horse’s good form is hidden is by running on the wrong surface. Clever horse bettors recognize these kinds of moves every day.
For example, a horse may have just been fully extended breaking his maiden in a claiming race and for his next race, he is put in a protected spot, either an allowance or starter allowance race, and put on a different surface then what he graduated on.
Enter the dirt to turf move. This maneuver can work the other way, turf to dirt, but for our example purposes today, we’ll move back to turf.
The runner in question is also a holiday hunch play as his name is Ho Ho Ho. The veteran was entered the first weekend of December at Calder in a $16,000 optional claiming race going a mile and a sixteenth on grass.
His prior four races were all at this exact same level but three of the four were taken off the grass and put on dirt because of weather concerns.
Sharp horse bettors that moved their eyes down the page a bit saw a very similar situation to the recent race. Back in the summer, Ho Ho Ho had tired in a race that was taken off the turf but came back the very next time when the race stayed on turf and he won going away when controlling the pace and outcome.
Those that looked a little deeper saw that this runner hated the dirt and that in his 8 prior races since May five of those had been taken off the turf and run on dirt.
In the three that stayed on grass, this guy won and was third twice.
In the race directly prior to the December debut, Ho Ho Ho went 8-5 on the wrong dirt surface and lost ground in the lane to be beaten 7 lengths.
On the day in question, the race stayed on the grass, quick look horse bettors saw the last bad race, let Ho Ho Ho go off at 9-1 and watched in horror as he won for fun for a rider that had already won 257 races this year.
The lesson for horse betting is to wait for a runner that gets his kind of race TODAY and to toss races where he really didn’t want to be and didn’t really belong.
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