Posted on 11/1/2007 11:49:12 PM

Horse Racing: Nov. 3rd Cal Cup Analysis

By D.S. Williamson

The Breeders’ Cup is over and, if you’re like me, you spent Monday and Tuesday licking your wounds. It got awfully ugly out there for me after winning both of my bets on Indian Blessing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and on War Pass in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

I pretty much stunk it up after that not hitting a single horse in any of my bets the next six races in a row.

No matter! Because on November 3rd, this weekend, is Cal Cup Day! That’s right! The day gives all of those non-Breeders’ Cup qualifying horses bred in a California a day to shine. It’s also a huge wagering day because the races occur during the afternoon for West Coasters and during the evening for East Coasters. Money runs into these races like there’s no tomorrow and because you will be wagering through BetUS your wagers won’t effect the national pools! Terrific news, right?

In any case, the draw was this past Wednesday and I’ve gone through four of the best races and have listed out the 3 horses that I think have the best chance to win their preferred horse racing odds-line. I suggest that you do not bet on any of these horses to win IF they go off less than the odds-line I have listed. The idea with horse wagering is to also look for a price. That’s the only way to win in the long-run. All of these races are restricted to California bred horses.

Cal Cup Matron – 1 1/16th – Cushion Track - $150,000

1. Romance is Diane – off odds of 3 to 1

2. Somethingaboutlaura – off odds of 2 to 1

3. Fun Logic – off odds of 5 to 1

Romance is Diane should be able to track Somethingaboutlaura and then make a nice move in the lane. Somethingaboutlaura is the best horse in this field but I doubt her odds will be close to 2 to 1. Fun Logic is good enough on her best day but she’ll have to stay closer to the pace than she likes in this short field and I’m not sure she can do that.

Cal Cup Distaff – 6.5 Furlongs – Turf - $125,000

1. Double Major – off odds of 3 to 1

2. Dancing Edie – off odds of 2 to 1

3. Spenditallbaby – off odds of 4 to 1

Double Major might be just as good as Dancing Edie. I know she is probably better at this distance and her outside draw allows her to stay close to Edie who know doubt will go to the front in this one. Dancing Edie is the absolute class of this field but, like Somethingaboutlaura in the Matron, will end up going off at very low odds. Stay away as Edie will want more turf than the 6.5 she’s getting in this one. Spenditallbaby has been knocking heads against tougher, but she’s a closer and will have to shorten up a lot.

Cal Cup Sprint – 6 Furlongs – Cushion Track - $150,000

1. Areyoutalkintome – off odds 2 to 1

2. Bilo – off odds of 5 to 1

3. Bro Lo – off odds of 6 to 1

Areyoutalkintome is a closer in a race full of speed. At one time, he was running against some of the best sprinters in the world. Now, he gets to beat Bilo and Bro Lo. He is one of likeliest winners on the card as the race sets up for him and he’s easily the classiest animal in this race. Bilo is very, very fast and will also get the lead. However, Bilo will be facing tons of pressure in this race and he will have to be extra gutsy to hang-on for a win in here. Bro Lo is ultra-talented but he hasn’t regained the form he had in 2006. It’s getting late for him to do that but with Garret Gomez coming back to SoCal and jumping on this guy; you have to give him a shot, right? The outside draw will help as well.

Cal Cup Classic – 1 1/8th - Cushion Track - $250,000

1. Tiz Afire – off odds of 5 to 1

2. Freesgood – off odds of 6 to 1

3. Bold Chieftan – off odds of 6 to 1

Tiz Afire, has the natural talent to win this race as well as the steady hand of Joe Talamo. Talamo is one of the better riders in the United States right now and just has that quality that you look for in a good rider. Higher odds than 5 to 1 are not out of the question either - - why not take a shot? Freesgood is an up and down sort but when he’s up he shows flashes of his daddy, Free House. Gets the services of Mike Smith and can lay close or track the speed. Expect much, much higher odds than the 6 to 1 on my line. Bold Chieftan is a very good horse but will probably end up softening up Lava Man in this one early and set it up for one of my top picks. Also, Chieftan, no doubt, will go off around 2 to 1, maybe 8 to 5 as the second choice to Lava Man.

Lava Man, the 7 to 5 chalk, should win this one easily but after watching his last two races he doesn’t look like he wants to run anymore. That can happen to these geldings once in a while and Lava, who’s getting older every day, might just be tired. They should call it a day with one of California’s greatest race horses. If he runs up the track in this one, like I expect he might, they probably will.

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