Up to Triple Crown Articles

posted November 28, 2007 at 17:54 in Triple Crown Articles

For years when I was setting the line for the Daily Racing From, I resisted when fashionable terms were thrown around like the racing end all.

I was more interested in working hard, gathering all the facts and making sound decisions, and that is what sharp horse bettors do too.

But after a long time to delve into and follow what is called the ‘bounce’ theory, the concept can be easily accepted under some circumstances.

The ‘bounce’ is what horseplayers refer to if a runner has a negative result after a previous outing.

One of the more common things horse bettors see is that if a horse is away for an extended period of time, say 6 months or more, and he runs a bang-up race in his first start back, whether he wins or loses, then this taxing effort will zap him for a few races directly after the comeback.

There are two schools of thought that bettors consider here. Was the runner fully extended in that comeback run, or was he doing this all on his own with plenty left in the gas tank?

There are some ‘bounce’ situations that bettors should follow and try to evaluate.

If a runner posts a smashing performance on grass and all of a sudden is swung back quickly in a dirt race, bettors must be aware of a possible decline in his performance.

A ‘bounce’ can also occur if a runner gets an easy pace scenario in his return race, then hooks a field with a ton of speed and will therefore be compromised on the front end.

Clever bettors know that good horses can ‘bounce’ and so can cheap horses.

Only the cream of the crop can run in stakes races in the U.S. and the majority of racing cards are made up of common folk, the middle class that are claimers.

 

Most claimers only have so many good races in them and some gristled veterans fire their best shot off a layoff.

Consider this the same way an avid golfer may react after a long layoff. Say the golfer was hurt or somehow unable to play, he may come back and exceed his expectation the first time playing golf back because he doesn’t think about anything except making contact and not being so circumspect about every shot.

Bettors know that the same thing happens with an older horse that already knows all the tricks and is happy to be back racing that first time when they are apt to run huge.

 

The next time? That’s when clever bettors are very careful because of the ‘bounce’.

 

Just because a horse runs a super career race, doesn’t mean he has to ‘bounce’ next time but cagey bettors know that the quality horses hold their form longer and are less likely to bounce while distaffers or cheaper runners are much more eligible.

Bettors also have to know who is controlling the strings. If the trainer is a guy that puts a solid foundation into his horses with a long workout regiment, that kind of runner is less likely to ‘bounce’.

There are no rules in concrete as far as the ‘bounce’ but bettors have to be aware that it does happen often and must try not to get fooled by teeing it up in that kind of a situation.

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