Posted on 10/23/2007 3:32:05 PM

Off-Track Betting Get Ready to Rock with the Breeders’ Cup

By D.S. Williamson

The Breeders’ Cup is this weekend and for horse bettors October 26th and October 27th is our major holiday!  We’ve been waiting all year for this!

This year’s Breeders’ Cup is being held at Monmouth Park in Newport, New Jersey.  Monmouth had a short meet over the summer where all of us horse bettors got an opportunity to view how the conventional dirt and turf courses played.  With so many horses coming into the Breeders’ Cup from other tracks, it is important to remember some things specific only to Monmouth Park.

Therefore, before we get into the hard betting aspects of this year’s Breeders’ Cup, we’ll go over the Monmouth Park.

The Monmouth Park dirt surface is a one-mile oval that is one-hundred feet wide.  Although this makes the run to the first turn quite important, it is not nearly as important as one might think.  Losing ground at Monmouth Park is not the thing to worry about.  What you have to worry about is whether or not you have the requisite speed to get yourself into position early in order to get a run going before hitting the top of the stretch.

Why?  Because the mixture of silt, clay and loam that makes up the Monmouth Park dirt track causes horses to almost spin their wheels once they hit the stretch.  I have not found a reason why but I have seen this phenomenon happen to such horses as former champion Point Given, 3-year old star Curlin, and a host of other top horses such as Touch Gold. 

A closer who can do it on the Monmouth Park dirt surface is truly a great horse. 

When it comes to the Monmouth grass course, speed did well over the summer.  But, horse bettors must remember that there is speed and then there is speed.  In other words, no matter how talented the horse you like may be, if the horse can’t slow it down on the front end on the lawn - - I would say to no less than a 47 and change half - - that horse probably won’t hang on to the wire.  Closers always do better on the grass than speed types.  This hasn’t changed and probably won’t change this weekend unless a horse named Chief Bearheart comes out of retirement.

Okay, now that the track specifics are out of the way, let’s go through each race.  I’ve highlighted whom I think the favorite will be and then I’ve highlighted my top three selections.  You can consider my first selection in each race as my key horse - - the horse I will use in exactas, trifectas, and pick-3 wagers.

On October 26th the following races will be run:  the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint - - 6 Furlongs

Favorite:  Dream Rush – expected odds of 5 to 2

Top Three

1. Oprah Winney – off odds 3 to 1
2. Dream Rush – off odds 4 to 1
3. Miss Macy Sue – off odds of 6 to 1

Oprah Winney ran a fantastic race on the Monmouth Park dirt surface two races ago and there’s no reason to believe she won’t win this one.  She can lead or stalk and there’s no better trainer on the East Coast than Richard Dutrow.  Dream Rush is as good as a filly can get, but she’s almost a true Belmont horse.  She has never run on the Monmouth strip and there is no telling whether or not she will be able to carry her speed or catch Oprah Winney.  Miss Macy Sue is a terrific filly who is getting better with every race.  In every race on the Monmouth dirt track it is important to look for a speed horse that has the potential to steal the race since speed does so well at Monmouth.  Miss Macy Sue is that horse in this race.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf - - 1 Mile

Favorite:  Ibn Kalduhn – expected odds of 2 to 1

Top Three

1. Cannonball – off odds of  7 to 2
2. Ibn Kalduhn – off odds of 4 to 1
3. Domestic Fund – off odds of 5 to 1

Cannonball has improved every single race for trainer Wesley Ward.  Now, Ward stretches this fella out from 6 furlongs and there’s no reason to believe that he won’t do well on the Monmouth grass course.  Should improve again and that could put him in the winner’s circle. Ibn Kalduhn comes from the powerful Godolphin stable.  Play against at your own risk and has a win over firm going (they call it good) over in England.  Will get all-star jock Frankie Dettori for the ride.  Domestic Fund comes over the sea for trainer Dermot Weld.  When Weld sends a horse over, he means to win, and this guy finished second in a Grade II at Leopardstown in his last.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile - - 1 Mile

Favorite:  Discreet Cat – expected odds of 3 to 1

1. Gottcha Gold -4 to 1
2. Wanderin’ Boy -4 to 1
3. Park Avenue Ball -6 to 1

Gottcha Gold is a Monmouth Park winning machine.  Gotcha Gold has 5 wins and 2 seconds out of eight starts on the Monmouth Park surface.  He is speed incarnate, a Grade III winner, and just busted a beautiful move going 5 furlongs in 1:00 on the Monmouth surface.  The best upsetter in the race. Wanderin’ Boy is all class and there’s no reason to believe that he won’t be up and on the pace in this race.  Has been running against the best older horses on the East Coast and he hasn’t done badly.  He will vie for favoritism with Discreet Cat.  Park Avenue Ball is another who likes Monmouth Park.  6 wins and 3 places out of ten starts at Monmouth, Park Avenue Ball will definitely be lost in the betting as he ran terribly in his last race.  Now, back at his home track, Park Avenue Ball has a good chance to make himself known in this race.

What’s wrong with Discreet Cat?  It appears that everything is.  He has always had injury issues and just didn’t appear to be very explosive in his last race.  He should probably be retired, but Godolphin appears insistent on giving him one last shot.

On October 27th the following races will be run: the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, the Breeders’ Cup Mile, the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

Favorite:  Irish Smoke -off at expected odds of 8 to 5

1. Indian Blessing -8 to 5
2. Cry and Catch Me -2 to 1
3. Grace Anatomy -6 to 1

Indian Blessing is the speed of this race and there doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of speed.  She could go off the favorite, but my thinking is that the appearance of speed from some of these will scare some horse bettors off of Indian Blessing.  That would be a crazy mistake as Indian Blessing is, without a doubt, one of the best two-year old fillies I have ever seen run.  Forget it.  She’s going to take the lead in here and take off.  Cry and Catch Me, Indian Blessing’s stable mate from the West Coast, is also very talented.  She has a legitimate chance to beat Indian Blessing but she doesn’t have Blessing’s speed and that could make the difference.  Grace Anatomy is a filly who is getting better and better.  If for some reason Monmouth isn’t playing to speed (is hell freezing over?), then Grace Anatomy has a great shot in here.  If speed is holding, and that should be the case, then Grace Anatomy finishes up the track.

Irish Smoke is a good filly but she’s got to track Cry and Catch Me and then pass both Cry and Catch Me and Indian Blessing in this race.  That probably won’t happen.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Favorite:  War Pass -off at expected odds of 5 to 2

1. War Pass -8 to 5
2. Z Humor -6 to 1
3. Tale of Ekati -6 to 1

War Pass will go off the favorite in this race but this undefeated son of Cherokee Run looks pretty much unbeatable at this distance and at this track.  He’s just too fast for the rest of these.  Those who try to stick with him will get burned.  Those who try to chase him down won’t be able to once they hit the top of the stretch.  He’s one of the likeliest winners on the card and should be a single on almost everybody’s Pick-3 tickets.  Z Humor finished second to War Pass in his last race, and has a good chance of finishing second to him in this race.  Humor must stay closer to War Pass this time if he’s to have any shot.  Tale of Ekati  is a sprinter stretching out and has a chance to be the closest to War Pass.  Ekati is a long-shot in this race, but if you’re trying to beat War Pass, he might be your play.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Favorite:  Wait A While -off at expected odds of 3 to 1

1. Nashoba’s Key -8 to 5
2. Passage of Time -3 to 1
3. Simply Perfect -4 to 1

Nashoba’s Key is undefeated.  She’s seven for seven and has won on artificial surfaces as well as on the grass.  She’s won from the rail as well as going wide.  She’s won from tracking the pace as well as coming from the clouds.  She’s a monster and another potential single in your Pick-3s.  Passage of Time comes overseas for trainer Henry Cecil.  She beat Soldier’s Fortune, one of the top turf fillies or mares across the pond, and there is no doubt that she will put in a good run.  If it weren’t for Nashoba’s Key, Passage of Time would make a good key horse in here.  Simply Perfect strutted her stuff at Newmarket in her last losing by only two lengths in a Grade I.  She will have to go further than usual in this race and that could be her undoing.

What’s wrong with Wait A While?  Not too much.  She’s a great turf horse but the distance just isn’t what she’s good at and I doubt she will care for the Monmouth turf course.  She’s too off and on to recommend a win wager.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint – 6 Furlongs

Favorite:  Midnight Lute – off at expected odds of 8 to 5

1. La Traviata -6 to 5
2. Smokey Stover -6 to 1
3. Idiot Proof -6 to 1

La Traviata  is super fast.  Let me repeat that, La Traviata is super fast.  Lightly raced, super fast, out of Johannesburg, and with a win at Monmouth?  Sure, she’s a filly going against some very quick boys, but - - who cares?  She’s too fast for these guys.  They have no chance against her and she will run them off their feet almost as soon as the gates open.  Smokey Stover is a classy, tough, thoroughbred out of the Greg Gilchrist barn.  Gilchrist is a master when it comes to training sprinters and Smokey Stover has proven it over the course of this year.  The problem is that Stover won’t be able to stick with the girl.  Idiot Proof owns the record at Monmouth Park going six furlongs.  Usually, I’d be all over a horse like this, especially at a track like Monmouth Park, but again - - La Traviata is really, really fast.

Midnight Lute is a closer in a race full of super speed horses on a track that favors super speed.  Lute’s best race was at Saratoga at seven furlongs.  That extra furlong would definitely help him here, but this race is only six furlongs so by the time Lute gets to the top of the stretch in this race, the filly might be taking a picture with flowers all over her.

Breeders’ Cup Mile – 1 Mile

Favorite:  Nobiz Like Shobiz – off at expected odds of 2 to 1

1. Excellent Art – 3 to 1
2. After Market – 4 to 1
3. Trippi’s Storm – 5 to 1

Excellent Art is the class of this field having finished second by a head and by one length in his last two Grade I runs.  Should excel over the turf and obviously has been facing tougher overseas than anyone in here.  Comes form the Aidan O’Brien barn.  After Market’s claim to fame is beating Lava Man.  Big whoop, right?  Anyhow, he has all of the tools but hasn’t put together that perfect race yet.  Could do it here as he’s the best bred horse of the bunch.  Trippi’s Storm came from the clouds and upset the Grade II Kelso in his last.  When turf horses start to get it going they usually keep it going.  He too could be tough in this one.

What’s wrong with Nobiz Like Shobiz?  Nothing except this is the first time he is going to have to face turf horses that are just as good, and maybe even better, than he is.  Excellent Art, After Market, and Trippi’s Storm are all older, bigger, and more experienced.  That will work against Shobiz in this race.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Favorite:   Ginger Punch – off at expected odds of 7 to 2

1. Hystericalady – 4 to 1
2. Unbridled Belle – 4 to 1
3. Bear Now – 6 to 1

In the toughest race on the card, take the toughest horse in the race.  That’s Hystericalady who has as much heart as any horse likely to run on Saturday.  She’s also a speed freak and did I mention that Monmouth favors speed?  Oh yes, Hystericalady’s best race came over the Monmouth strip.  Unbridled Belle has really come on for trainer Todd Pletcher.  She will be close but probably not close enough.  Still, she’s the class of the field.  Bear Now is another speedster who might actually improve in this race.  She comes out of Tiznow and, like her daddy, she’s gotten better as the months have past.

Ginger Punch has won races against suspect, short, fields and got trounced by Unbridled Belle in their last match-up.  She may be on the end-swing of her form cycle.

Breeders’ Cup Turf

Favorite:  Dylan Thomas - off at expected odds of 6 to 5

1. Dylan Thomas – 4 to 5
2. Sunriver – 10 to 1
3. English Channel – 10 to 1
4. Better Talk Now – 10 to 1

Dylan Thomas is the most likely winner on the Breeders’ Cup card.  There is just no way to explain how winning both the Grade I Irish Champion Stakes and the Grade I Pri De L’Arc Triomphe compares to the rest of this field.  He could run backwards and he’d probably finish in the top five against these guys.  Sure, English Channel, Sunriver, and Better Talk Now have had their moments, but they can’t even begin to sniff the underside of Dylan Thomas’s saddle.  This is an easy one, but it won’t pay anything.  So, if you use Dylan Thomas use him as a key horse in your Pick-3 or Trifectas.

Breeders’ Cup Classic

Favorite:  Lawyer Ron – off at expected odds of 5 to 2

1. Hard Spun – 4 to 1
2. Lawyer Ron – 4 to 1
3. Any Given Saturday – 6 to 1

This is an ultra-competitive race that figures to go to a horse close to the pace.  That means that Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense probably won’t be in the top-three.  Hard Spun, however, has a terrific chance of stealing this race because even though it’s loaded with talent it is not loaded with speed.  Sure, Spun wasn’t the best during the spring or summer.  Heck, he wasn’t even the best month, but he will be the best come this Saturday.  Why?  Because he’s getting bigger and getting stronger and, like I said, there isn’t that much speed.  In his last race at Monmouth Park, Hard Spun had to deal with Cable Boy, a speed freak.  No such Cable Boy’s in this race to soften up Spun.  In fact, Lawyer Ron is the only horse who’s going to be close to Spun in the first half-mile and even then, Ron had better apply pressure or Spun will be gone.  Any Given Saturday ran his best lifetime race at Monmouth Park.  He figures to come up big on Saturday but he closed to beat Hard Spun in that race.  Without a Cable Boy to help Any Given Saturday’s chances, this years’ bridesmaid (Spun finished second in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Haskell Stakes) might turn into the bride.

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