Posted on 3/5/2008 6:01:14 PM

NHL Furious Free Picks – Wednesday Night Revelations

By Tim Furious

Washington Capitals (31-28-8) vs. Buffalo Sabres (32-26-9)

Wednesday, March 5th --- HSBC Arena, Buffalo --- 7:00pm EST

NHL Betting Lines: Washington +110

When Ovechkin scored his 50th goal on the tail end of a hat trick in a blowout victory over the Boston Bruins, he sent a clear message to the rest of the league. The message is simple – “we are for real”. After going 3-2 SU in their past five games, the new-look Capitals have looked sharp recently. The upgrade in net is certainly a huge reason for their recent success, taking away the steep learning curve that Cristobel Huet has to make adjusting to a team that doesn’t play defense as well as his former Montreal Canadiens. But is this team seriously for real?

Well there’s no better way to prove it than by beating a team they haven’t in the six past meetings. The Sabres are 6-0 SU against the Caps. The Sabres are looking to prove that they can remain a scoring machine without Chris Drury, Daniel Briere and Brian Campbell on the roster. The Sabres average 3.06 goals per game, but it’s hard to imagine maintaining that without the services of Campbell, one of the best puck moving defensemen in the league. What’s worse is the 2.90 goals against average they tote, which is certain to climb without the stealthy Campbell surveying the blue-line.

Washington is still a scoring machine, notching 2.94 goals per game. With Federov, Semin, Backstrom and Kozlov leading the charge, it will be extremely difficult for any team to match their offensive fire power. And the services of Ovechkin can’t go undersold. This team can score the lights out, and plays efficient two-way hockey. But the offensive potency will be fully complemented by the much steadier goal tending of Huet, who has quickly supplanted Olaf Kolzig.

At the beginning of the season, I threw Buffalo under the bus saying that they couldn’t match the stellar season of yester year with the loss of their two captains. I stand by that. They are 1-4 SU in their past 5 games at home, and despite their recent success against Washington, they will begin their expected nose dive towards the cellar of the Eastern Conference with a loss to the Washington. The puck line, as always, is a terrible bet, but the money line for the road dog Washington Capitals should attract some savvy betting investors.

NHL Betting Free Picks: Washington +110 (OVER)

Ottawa Senators (37-24-6) vs. San Jose Sharks (37-21-8)

Wednesday, March 5th --- HP Pavilion, San Jose --- 10:30pm EST

NHL Betting Lines: San Jose -155

The line opened at -140 for the Sharks and has pushed hard and fast away from the Senators. And there’s no reason to doubt the notion of the hockey betting community in this one. Ottawa is 1-4 SU in their past 5 games, not to mention 1-6 SU in their past 7 road games. You can’t win in the NHL when you’re allowing 3+ goals per game, and the Sens paltry goal tending is giving up 3.03 against per game.

Their offensive numbers are as inflated as a hot air balloon. But like the ones that you see on youtube so often, this hot air balloon is about to go down in some serious hellfire. The Sens boast 3.24 goals per game, but their offense has vanished as the goalie situation continues to cause utter turmoil to the chemistry of this team. Without a reliable back stopper, the pressure has fallen on the top line to produce beyond their abilities. And teams are throwing out their best checking lines in an effort to slow down the one-trick pony version of the Senators. They’re a lot like the Lightning of last year – one line, no goal tending and absolutely zero defense.

The opposite is true for San Jose, who should be getting more attention from the betting community as Stanley Cup favorites. How do you beat this team? The 2.67 goals for average is certainly worrisome, but their third ranked defense makes up for all that. The addition of Brian Campbell only solidifies a team that plays tremendous team defense. And the proof that their system is working is in the betting pudding. The Sharks are 5-0 SU and are notoriously difficult to play against at home in the second half. They are 6-3 SU in their past 9 home games and will close out a solid game against a stiff opponent that receives far too much recognition as an elite team.

Bet on the Sharks to prey on every weakness that Ottawa possesses. They will storm the net with a barrage of shots, and neutralize the “feared” top line of Alfredsson-Heatley-Spezza as they put the clamps on this increasingly anemic offense, and the Senators playoff hopes in the process.

NHL Betting Free Picks: San Jose -155

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