Posted on 2/29/2008 4:23:22 PM

NHL Furious Free Picks - Friday Night Hockey Betting

By Tim Furious

Toronto Maple Leafs (28-28-9) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (25-31-7)

Friday, February 29th --- St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa --- 8:00pm EST

NHL Betting Line: Tampa Bay -110

My friend Mike is going to hate me for writing this but here goes...How in the hell does a team that has lost five straight, and their third best player in Brad Richards, get even standing against a team that is 5-1 SU in their past 6 games? Forget the past records because hockey is a sport about momentum now. Oh you want to talk about the past? How about the 7-2-0-1 record the Leafs hold over the Lightning in their past 10 meetings?

The Leafs outlasted Florida in a shootout in a game that Mats Sundin went ballistic in with two goals and an assist. Tampa has been outscored by a total score of 16-10 in their past five losses. They’re playing better team defense, but that’s relative for a team that is atrocious at protecting the net.

Toronto still has the worst penalty killing in the league, and that is a bit of a concern tonight. They make a lot of mistakes and find themselves in the box far too often for a team that can’t afford to. They are 79.1 percent on the penalty kill, meaning one in every five power plays they allow ends up in the red light spinning.

But here’s why you should bet on the Leafs: the Leafs offense annually achieves some of the most shots in the league. They rifle off 30.60 shots per game and average 2.78 goals per game. That is not good for Tampa, which has third worst defense in the league with 3.3 goals allowed per game.

This goes without mentioning that Brad Richards, who had five assists for Dallas last night (and good grief, that Stars team looks dangerous), is gone and leaves Tampa with one scoring line and three other lines whose purpose I’m still not sure about. I think they just skate around and hope to god nothing bad happens. The Leafs are motivated to prove they are playoff worthy, and have continually been very successful against Southeast Division teams. Expect that betting trend to continue tonight as they trounce Tampa.

NHL Furious Free Pick: Toronto (UNDER)

Montreal Canadiens (34-21-9) vs. Buffalo Sabres (31-24-9)

Friday, February 29th --- HSBC Arena, Buffalo --- 7:30pm EST

NHL Betting Line: Buffalo -130

Ok, so I was dead wrong about Buffalo. Did they seriously just wallop the Predators 8-4? Wow. Despite the loss of their best defenseman, the Sabres are doing exactly what they did last year. They are putting the opposition on their heels by burning the twine and instituting the mantra, “the best defense is a good offense” in to the mix. The total has gone in the Over in 4-of-5 for Buffalo. King Leonidas would be proud.

Montreal is still 5-2 in their past 7 games, but are just 4-13 SU in their last 17 games against Buffalo. You have to love the way the Canadiens franchise plays hockey. They stick by their well-selected young talent and beat you with fast puck movement that controls the flow of the game and puts the opposition in a head spin. But I’m not one-hundred percent sold on Carey Price, who has been handed the reigns in net with Huet backing up Godzilla in Washington.

Price is going to need all the help he can get. The Canadiens allow 2.83 points against per game, and we’re talking about a goalie barely out of his diapers that has to put a team on his back and carry them in to the playoffs. Are you willing to bet on that? I certainly wouldn’t.

Helping is the fact that Montreal scores 3.14 goals per game. But Buffalo can match them toe-for-toe in lamp lighters. In a game that is tough to gauge for two reasons, definitely take the OVER. But between Buffalo’s new penchant for scoring and Montreal leaning on Price for their playoff push, what are you willing to bet on? I’d bet on the former if I were you. And if you’re not sure what that means then…

NHL Furious Free Pick: Buffalo (OVER)

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