Posted on
10/13/2007 10:31:48 PM
NFL Free Picks: New England Patriots (5-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-0)
By Tim Furious
New England Patriots (5-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-0)
Sunday, October 10th --- Texas Stadium, Dallas --- 4:15pm EST
Opening football line: New England -4 (52)
Preview
The Patriots will march down to Dallas, Texas in the only game on this weekend’s schedule that anybody cares about. Terrell Owens is out to prove that he is the only #81 that matters, while Randy Moss continues his MVP campaign. Tony Romo will go up against the most difficult defense he will ever see in his career, while Tom Brady and Bill Bilichek seek to prove that absolutely nobody is in the same class as the Patriots. Getcha’ popcorn ready.
New England Offense vs. Dallas Defense
Sammy Morris has stood in as a fine replacement for Laurence Maroney, but neither runner will find a whole lot of room against this fast, agile and freakishly big Dallas front-seven. DeMarcus Ware is going to becoming a force of nature in the NFL, but will struggle against a Pats offensive line that is the best in the business by far. Dallas only allows 80.6 rushing yards per game.
That will leave the game in Tom Brady’s hands, which is exactly where the Patriots want it. What the Dallas secondary lacks is speed and size. What the New England passing game excels at is speed (Wes Welker) and size (Randy Moss). They already give up 204.8 yards through the air and Brady’s Bunch averages 272.8 passing yards.
The Dallas defense has to break through to Brady and force him to make mistakes. The Dallas defense will give them some opportunities, but the Patriots offensive line is sturdy and refuses to bend or break. To put it simply, Tom Brady is going to shred this secondary to pieces.
Dallas Offense vs. New England Defense
New England has the second best defense in the league. They allow a measly 251.4 yards per game while suffocating teams to 13.0 points on average. It also helps that the offense absolutely demoralizes opponents. But, they can not let up the pressure against the never-say-die Cowboys and Tony Romo.
Tony Romo is a creative playmaker and will have to work things out on the fly because the Patriots defense is the best in the business when it comes to disguising themselves. Owens and Rodney Harrison will get well acquainted with one another as the Original 81 looks to outperform Moss. Dallas’s second ranked passing offense will excel if they are able to get the ball underneath to Owens and allow him to fight for yards after the carry. Jason Witten can usually outpace any linebacker, but Adalius Thomas will keep him contained for most of the game.
Where Dallas has to excel is in the running game, which will be a stiff challenge. Julius Jones and Marion Barber III are excellent backs. Jones has excellent field vision and cutback ability, while MB3 runs with excessive aggression. New England’s front seven only yield 74.2 yards per game, but this Dallas offensive line is massive and can create gaps for Jones and Barber to gain yardage through.
Bet on Dallas leaning heavily on the rushing attack as they try to wear down the Patriots front seven behind the fresh legs of Jones and Barber. This will give Romo the time he needs to hurt the Patriots through the air.
NFL Betting Trends
-New England is 5-0 ATS this season
-Dallas is 4-1 ATS this season
-Dallas and New England are both 4-1 O/U
-Dallas is 4-2 SU in their last 6 when playing New England
Final Verdict
Tony Romo is still a young gun and is still developing as a quarterback and a leader. He came through in the clutch last weekend against the Bills, who dominated him up until the last twenty seconds of the game, which is apparently all he needed. But the Cowboys record is misleading. They have beaten five teams that have a combined record of 3-17.
The Cowboys proved last week that they can win despite costly turnovers. They will be in for the fight of their lives in this potential Superbowl preview. The oddsmakers have given the betting community a good line, and the smart betting investor will take New England on the road. Moss and Brady will simply be too much for Roy Williams and the Dallas secondary to handle.
NFL Free Pick: New England 34 Dallas 27
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