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posted October 9, 2007 at 16:03 in NFL Articles

NFL Wagering: Week 5 Recap & Week 6 Lines

by D.S. Williamson

If week three didn’t show the rest of the NFL who the New Orleans Saints are, then week five certainly did. Before the game Drew Brees said that the team needed to “find itself”. Well, I think it did. It found itself all right. How bad are the Saints? Looking at their schedule, they may not win a game. They still have to play Jacksonville and Houston and Philadelphia and Chicago - - okay, you get the point.

The truth about the New Orleans Saints is that, trend-wise, this year didn’t set up for them. They were the recipients of a very soft schedule last year and this year they are the recipient of a first place schedule. That means death in the NFL for a team like the Saints who really didn’t do enough over the spring and summer to get their defense up to par.

The good news is that the Saints aren’t that far away. They need their first round draft pick, Robert Meachem, to get going - - next year - - and then they need to pick up a serviceable linebacker. With the linebacker in place, they can use Roman Harper and Josh Bullocks differently in the defensive backfield and with Meachem becoming a true deep threat, they can use Reggie Bush and the tight end effectively. Of course, neither position will help the offensive line which, for some reason, isn’t nearly as formidable this year as they were last year. But, they could win a game or two - - next year. The BetUS NFL line on the Saints in their next game versus the Seattle Seahawks is Saints + 6.5 against the spread. The Saints have no chance of beating that spread. Absolutely zero.

The Dallas Cowboys capped an unbelievable comeback by snagging an on-side kick and then allowing Nick Folk, from the University of Arizona, to kick the ball through the uprights from 53 yards out. The kudos really deserve to go to the Cowboys’ scout team who found Folk at the U of A, which is still one of the worst college football teams in the Pac-10. For them to actually know who this guy was is incredible. For him to kick the 53 yarder in his rookie season is even more incredible.

Still, I give the Cowboys little chance to beat whatever spread the Patriots have to cover this Sunday. Whatever it ends up being, the Cowboys will probably get 3 or 4 points at home, won’t be enough. The Boys are on their way to a loss and Belichick will come up with exciting new ways to get Tony Romo to do stupid things. The Patriots cover on Sunday. (Editor’s note: line is currently set at -4.5 for New England).

Washington beat the Detroit Lions at home. It really wasn’t a true indication of how good Washington is as they always beat Detroit at home. Going into the game, the Lions were 0-20 at Washington. Now, the Lions are 0-21. Not only that, but you could just feel where the Lions were going to have a bad game offensively. John Kitna has been playing with fire because the Lions’ offensive line and defense are terrible. The Lions get a bye - - which is exactly what they need.

Washington gets to go to Lambeau Field and play a Packer team who is probably wondering how they let their game against Chicago get away from them. They just need to tweak a few things and Green Bay will be all right. They should have no trouble handling the Redskins. The BetUS line is Green Bay –3.5 against the spread. Green Bay looks good.

The Arizona Cardinals lost Matt Leinart for probably the year and that sigh you hear in the Phoenix wind is a sigh of relief from head coach Ken Wisenhunt. After all, Kurt Warner was playing better than Leinart before Leinart’s injury. Now, Wisenhunt won’t have to worry about playing the man who everyone is all ga-ga about. He can let Kurt do what Kurt is good at, throwing deep bombs to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Warner must be thinking that it’s 1999 and he’s playing with Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. Expect the Cardinals to start lighting up scoreboards at will with Warner at the helm full-time if, and this is a big one, they can keep Warner healthy. This weekend the BetUS line is Arizona Cardinals –4 against the spread versus Carolina. Arizona looks solid.

It kills me how after a team does very well it suddenly starts receiving all of the “hype” that it was getting over the summer. That is the case with the San Diego Chargers who, after destroying the Broncos on the road, have been installed as a BetUS 10 point favorite against the spread at home versus the Oakland Raiders. First, this is a classic rivalry game. The Raiders always play well in rivalry games. Second, the Raiders have one of the best rushing teams in the NFL. They also have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Have odds-makers seen what Thomas Howard, the Raiders’ middle-linebacker, can do to suspect quarterbacks? The man virtually eats running backs for breakfast. He’s a hall-of-famer waiting to happen. Oh, yeah. The Raiders also get Dominick Rhodes back. 10 points. Are you kidding me? The Raiders might be a solid money-line wager when the line comes out later this week.

The final team I want to write about are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who just lost Michael Pittman. Now, they are down to one running back, Ernest Graham. That means they get beat, on the square, at home versus the Tennessee Titans. They are also giving points to the Titans. That makes no sense. The Titans are a very good team. Their defense is good and they play offense well enough to win. They are a classic football team who can pound you into submission and then take over in the fourth quarter. The BetUS football line is Tennessee Titans +3 against the spread on the road versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Titans should walk through Tampa Bay for the win.

Until next week, good luck!

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