Posted on 12/10/2007 5:11:21 PM

Football Betting Trends - Eating Patriot Crow

By D.S. Williamson

Anybody who knows me understands that I am a stubborn son-of-a-you-know-what. I mean, I’ve been harping on the Patriots all year. One of the first things I ever wrote about, in regards to the NFL, was how the Patriots were a terrible future wager at their summer odds of 5 to 2.

It sort of feels like I need to eat some of that proverbial crow, doesn’t it? I mean, I can’t exactly sit here and keep writing about how the Patriots are going to lose each week or about how their lack of a real defense and their lack of a running game are going to hurt them in the playoffs. I can’t do that anymore, right?

Oh, but, wait! As soon as I was finished watching the Patriots absolutely destroy the Steelers, I saw what can only be described as a piece of heaven fall from the football gods in the form of the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts masterpiece versus the Baltimore Ravens was truly heaven-sent. As a football fan, and an NFL bettor, you have to hope - - heck, pray - - that the Colts have what it takes to derail the Patriots’ in the playoffs.

The problem is one of “chalk”. The Patriots will be such a huge favorite in the playoffs that any money-line bet that goes the other way is sure to pay-out handsomely. I mean, no NFL bettor can put money on the Patriots when they’re at – 600, but the Colts at + 500? Hey, that’s a great wager!

So, I will keep harping on the Patriots. It’s a matter of stubbornness and pride, now. They will fail, Becky! They will fail

Here some other thoughts regarding the NFL season as it begins to wind down:

1. The Colts are starting to hit their stride. I know. I know. I sort of alluded to that earlier in this article, but why not beat a good thing to death? Catch a replay of their game versus the Ravens and you will see what I mean. These guys are getting healthier and tougher at the right time. Watch out, Pats!

2. The Dallas Cowboys do not have the defense to win in the playoffs. Make sure to seriously consider any against the spread line you get regarding the Cowboys from now and into the playoffs. These guys are starting to stink it up against the line. They can’t stop anybody. Where was that Cowboys pass-rush versus the Lions’ Swiss-cheese O-Line? Dallas WILL NOT make the Super Bowl.

3. The team that could surprise in the NFC is the Minnesota Vikings. I can’t wait to wager on the Vikings in the playoffs IF they get to play either the Seahawks, the Giants, or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Heck, the only team I don’t like the Vikings against in the NFC are the Green Bay Packers. Here’s hoping that Minnesota gets that last playoff spot which means that they have to play on the road which means that they get points which means the money-line is going to be nice!

4. Don’t drink the San Diego Kool-Aid. Stay away from the Chargers going down the stretch and into the playoffs. They don’t have enough to make an impact. I still like Denver, Pittsburgh, the Colts, or the Jags straight-up versus the Chargers.

5. If Pittsburgh gets a chance to play the Patriots again, take the Steelers and the points. Yes, I said it again! I do believe that the Steelers were sort of blind-sided by how good the Patriots are. I don’t think Pittsburgh understood how significant having Randy Moss and Wes Welker on the same team with Tom Brady is. Also, the Steelers’ O-Line got man-handled. But, if Mike Tomlin has shown anything as a coach, it’s that he can adjust, and the Steelers will adjust if they get the chance to play the Patriots in the play-offs. It could happen. If it does, take the Steelers and the points.

6. The Jacksonville Jaguars may be this years’ “upset” special team. In 1987 the San Francisco 49’ers, with Roger Craig, Jerry Rice, and Joe Montana, were 13 and 2 and the undisputed “best” team in the NFL. They ended up playing the hapless Minnesota Vikings, sitting at a regular season record of 8 and 7, in the playoffs. What happened? The Viking upset the 49’ers which opened the door for the Washington Redskins which led to the Redskins destroying the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl. Could that happen in the AFC this year? Maybe. The similarities between that 49’ers team and this years’ Patriots team is eerie. Both are led by “genius” coaches, Bill Walsh for the 49’ers and Bill Belichick for the Patriots. Both have star quarterbacks, Joe Montana for the 49’ers and Tom Brady for the Patriots. Both have tremendous wide-outs, Jerry Rice for the 49’ers and Randy Moss for the Patriots. If the Patriots are upset early in the playoffs, then it will probably be the Wild Card Jaguars who do it.

Until next week, good luck!

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