posted December 21, 2007 at 15:57 in NFL Betting Trends

My beloved New Orleans Saints have actually been playing very well in this later part of the NFL season. Sure, they lost their game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because of a very questionable play-call by second year coach Sean Payton, but I can forgive that.

They’ve gone 7 and 3 straight-up in their last 10 games. Two of those wins were high-quality ones versus the Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars respectively. When the Saints put it together, particularly on offense, they are an extremely dangerous team.

The key in this game will be the Saints’ offense versus the Jimmie Johnson pass rush schemes of the Philadelphia Eagles defense. But before getting into that here are some trends:

The Philadelphia Eagles are 5 and 2 against the spread in their away games this year.

The New Orleans Saints are 2 and 5 against the spread in their home games this year.

The New Orleans Saints are also 6 and 8 against the spread in their 14 overall games this year.

I am throwing these trends out the window for the simple fact that I believe that coach Sean Payton of the Saints is getting his team to peak at exactly the right time of the year. They’ve been terrific on offense in their past two games and I don’t see that changing as the Eagles’ D has a situation in this game that might lead to a loss.

For one, the Eagles’ D is predicated upon great blitzing schemes. The Saints offense has actually been more consistent in the run game with Aaron Stecker carrying the ball instead of Reggie Bush. A good run game can counteract any blitz schemes. Then, of course, there’s Drew Brees calling the shots behind the Saints’ O-Line. Because Brees is an expert at reading where the blitz is coming from, the Saints can get off huge gains down the middle of the field and on the side-lines to their bevy of wide receivers.

Brees will be going to his hot-read all day in this one. He’s one of the best in the NFL at doing that.

Don’t get me wrong, the Eagles will put up some points in this one, but the Saints should be able to win by at least a touchdown. Momentum is on their side. The Saints are close to securing a play-off spot. I suspect that they will play like a team with something to prove.

The BetUS NFL gambling line is New Orleans Saints – 3 against the spread at home versus the Philadelphia Eagles.

I like the Saints to cover that spread.

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