Posted on
12/10/2007 4:56:36 PM
Football Betting – New York Jets at New England Patriots
By Charles Jay
The New England Patriots (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS) are still winning, and still scoring their share of points, But they've been slowed up justa bit in recent weeks. Can the New York Jets (3-10 SU, 4-8-1 ATS), having a difficult season, especially on defense, serve as a stumbling block for the Belichick Express? We'll find out in this game that is scheduled for a 1 PM EST kickoff at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA (artificial turf).
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, New England is listed at -24.5 with the total posted at 51 points.
First, let's take a look at the TOTALS-RELATED pro football stats and NFL betting trends concerning this matchup:
* NE has played 10 OVERS in 13 games this season
* NE has played seven of its last nine games OVER the total
* NE has gone OVER the total in five of six home games in '07
* NE has played 15 of its last 19 games OVER the total
* NY has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
* NY has played four of its 13 games OVER the total this season
* Four of the last five meetings have gone OVER the total
For those of not altogether familiar with the story, the Patriots were tried and convicted by the NFL for violating league rules in the first game of the season when they were videotaped stealing the Jets' defensive signals. Bill Belichick was fined $500,000 and the Pats lost draft picks. It is widely suspected that Jets' coach Eric Mangini blew the whistle on his former mentor.
Belichick was already reportedly upset that Mangini had left his staff to take the Jets' job last year - staying within the same division in the process - and this will greatly aggravate the situation, because in some quarters, the legitimacy of the Patriots' unbeaten season has been mildly questioned. With those conditions in place, plus the fact that New England scores 38 ppg at home, together with the proposition that Belichick likes to run up the score to boot, make this a potentially explosive situation, to say the least.
The Jets are giving up 26 points a game on the road. Maybe it would be standard to double that as a projection in this case. But look - Tom Brady faced off against a defense that had been yielding just 231 yards a game and passed for 399 yards against it, even though Pittsburgh knew what he was going to do, as New England went almost exclusively to the air in the second half. What can Brady and the Pats accomplish against the Jets' defense, which is ranked 27th in the NFL, surrendering an average of 350 yards?
And with Kellen Clemens at the controls, how much can the Jets do to hold up their end of the bargain? Not as much as they would with Chad Pennington, but New York does have a 21 ppg average away from home.
We hear the cliche so many times about "statement" games. this one, however, has the elements to truly fit the bill. As far as their piracy of the Jets' defensive strategy, I'm sure the Pats will want to make a statement with particular emphasis here. A painful one for the Jets, maybe, but not for us, as we watch their opponents possibly take care of this total all by themselves. The pointspread, hovering around three touchdowns and a field goal, may be prohibitive to some, but the total is not, and we'll go "over" the 51 points, as it is posted in the BetUS football betting odds.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: NEW ENGLAND -24.5, Total 51
NOTABLE STAT: New England is averaging one point for every 11 yards gained
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: New England has played of 13 games "over" the total this year
(For more useful stats and NFL betting trends, check out our special Matchup Tool)
JAY'S PLAY: OVER 51
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is "totally" cool - take our word for it. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)