posted December 3, 2007 at 13:52 in NFL Free Picks
NFL Football Betting – New England vs. Baltimore
The New England Patriots (11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS) are laying more points than any road team in the history of the NFL on Monday night when they travel to Baltimore's M&T Bank Stadium (artificial turf) to take on the Baltimore Ravens (4-7 SU, 1-10 ATS), who are still trying to find an offense. Game time is 8:30 PM ET. In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Pats are listed at -20.5, with the total posted at 50.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* NE has covered 14 of its last 17 games
* NE has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
* NE has played 11 of its last 14 games OVER the total
* NE has covered eight of its last ten road games
* NE is 21-3-1 ATS in its last 25 games on artificial turf
* NE has covered 18 of its last 23 as a road favorite
* BALT is 1-4 ATS at home in 2007
* BALT has won 14 of its last 18 home games SU
* NE is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings
* NE is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings
* Five of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
There is no doubt that Ray Lewis is going to have his Raven defense fired up for this one, especially as Baltimore is getting almost three TD's at home, something that would have seemed inconceivable at the season's start. Chris McAlister is just coming off an injury, and Samari Rolle is dealing with newly-discovered epilepsy, and even though one has to wonder whether those cornerbacks can do battle for sixty minutes with the machine-like New England offense, they have to be of some help. What the Ravens have to worry about is that the loss of Trevor Pryce gives them even less of a pass rush, so successful blitzing is a must.
New England's pass rush (31 sacks) should worry Kyle Boller, though, who's been sacked 16 times (just 5 TD's, 5 INT's). Whether it's Boller or Steve McNair in there, Baltimore has not been able to execute on third down (just 37%).
If there's anything we can count on with the Ravens, it's that Willis McGahee will be counted on heavily. He'll have to deal with a foot injury, as well the loss of his friend, Sean Taylor, but there is no question that Brian Billick will try to shorten the game by going to the ground.
I do not expect Baltimore to lay down at home. We saw that the defense kept playing hard, even after the game was decided in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago. But since I do not trust their offense, nor their technical numbers (1-10 ATS this year), I can not move with them plus the points, even though that's a hell of a lot to give. This will translate to a lower scoring game than expected, so even though New England could indeed win handily, we'll go "under" the 50.5-point total, as posted in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.
BetUS NFL betting odds: NEW ENGLAND -20.5, Total 50.5
NOTABLE STAT: New England averages 42 ppg on the road
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Baltimore has covered one of 11 games this year(For more useful stats and trends, visit our special Matchup Tool)
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 50.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
The 2007 NFL betting season is here in full force! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The BetUS sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join BetUS today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLII and beyond!
(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)
