Posted on 10/20/2007 11:53:42 AM

NFL Wagering Spreads - Falcons At Saints

By Charles Jay

BetUS NFL betting odds: New Orleans -8, Total: 42

NOTABLE STAT: Saints 4.6 yards per offensive play; Saints opponents 6.1 yards per offensive play

KEY NFL BETTING TREND: Atlanta is 18-2 ATS as a road dog vs. New Orleans

The New Orleans Saints (1-4 SU & ATS), anxious to build on the momentum from their first win of the 2007 season, play host to the struggling Atlanta Falcons (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) on Sunday at the Louisiana Superdome. Game time is 1 PM ET. The Saints are listed as an 8-point favorite in the BetUS football betting odds, with a posted total of 42 points.

What a lot of NFL fans outside these two cities are not aware of is that this is one of the most heated rivalries in the entire league, and from the betting perspective, it has been amazingly biased toward the visiting team. As a road underdog, in fact, Atlanta has covered on 18 of the last 20 occasions they have visited the Crescent City. That is strong. The Saints swept last season's series, winning first at home by a score of 23-3 as a 3.5-point underdog, then 31-13 at the Georgia Dome getting three points. However, in the second meeting, Atlanta beat the Saints' defense for 281 rushing yards.

This time out they will go about it utilizing the services of Byron Leftwich, who has been named the starting quarterback, replacing the erratic Joey Harrington. Leftwich completed two out of eight passes in his only appearance, and as Ron Jaworski of the ESPN announcing team pointed out last Monday night (during Atlanta's 31-10 loss to the Giants as a 4.5-point dog), Leftwich is not a fit for this offense, which is more of a "west coast" operation, relying on short drops and quick passes. Leftwich, who has been known to hold on to the ball, may have his own offense off-balance in his first start. And it is arguable that he is as vulnerable to pass rushes as Harrington, who was sacked 21 times. But coach Bobby Petrino says he is committed to Leftwich for the rest of the season, so perhaps adjustments in the offensive scheme itself may be in the offing.

Either way, this team will rely more on running back Jerious Norwood (5.7 ypc), who gained 225 all-purpose yards against the Giants. Norwood is quick and fast, and can catch the ball, so he spices up this attack. Offensive line problems have been glaring in Atlanta, though; left tackle Wayne Gandy was lost to injury and the Falcons haven't been able to adequately replace him.

The Saints went to Seattle as a six-point underdog last Sunday night and pulled off a 28-17 upset. New Orleans got a cheap special teams touchdown a couple of minutes into the game, as Seattle's long snapper botched one, but then put together touchdown drives of 86, 66 and 80 yards. Drew Brees was 25-36 for 246 yards and two TD's. And Reggie Bush gained 97 yards on the ground with 44 receiving yards (now 244 rush yards, 3.5 ypc).

Are the Saints back? That's debatable. For sure, Brees (sacked only four times) will be better protected than his opposite number. But there is still some concern about Olindo Mare, who has missed four out of seven field goal attempts. He's less reliable at this point than Morten Andersen, who is still bothered by his release from the Saints more than a decade ago. Even after three sacks of Matt Hasselbeck last week, New Orleans only has six for the year, and this team has still been outgained by a yard and a half PER PLAY by its opponents.

Let's take a quick look at some other trends:

* NO has covered five of the last six in the series

* NO is 2-17 ATS as a division home favorite of more than five pts.

* NO coach Sean Payton is 1-7 ATS as a home favorite

* ATL has played 12 unders in its last 15 games

And the grand finale...

* In October, NO is 0-9 ATS as a home favorite against an opponent coming off a SU and ATS loss

Is that a mouthful, or what?

Despite the style problems that may be presented by Leftwich's appointment as quarterback, he is more accomplished than Harrington, and has had several weeks to learn the system. The more the Falcons go to Norwood, the better off they are. The visitor bias in this series is a meaningful tech trend. I am not convinced that the Saints are ready to return to last year's level. And certainly it is risky to lay this many points with this team off that performance over what seems to be a dysfunctional Seattle team.

JAY'S PLAY: ATLANTA

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)