Posted on
11/5/2007 6:17:14 PM
NFL Football Betting – Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
By Tim Furious
The Steelers and Ravens clash in an AFC North matchup that will have huge ramifications on the playoff standings. The Steelers look to be firmly in control of this division, but need to gain some distance on the surging Cleveland Browns. The Ravens, meanwhile, are the definition of a pretender. Their 4-3 SU record is a sham and they are riding on the coattails of their own reputation.
Baltimore Ravens (4-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
Monday, November 5th --- Heinz Field, Pittsburgh --- 8:30pm EST
Opening NFL line: Pittsburgh -7.5 (37)
Baltimore Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
Baltimore has an offense? They are ranked 24th in the league with 17.7 points per game and gain a paltry 326.7 yards total.
Steve McNair was supposed to be finished two years ago, but this is a fact that the oddsmakers and the NFL betting community have not caught up with until recently.
McNair gets the start after a bye week, but he is posting a ridiculously bad season. As a starter he has 922 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in four games this season. Not helping matters is that Willis McGahee has been uninspiring after transferring from Buffalo. The former Miami Hurricane has amassed 639 yards on the ground, but has only registered two rushing touchdowns.
Making Monday night an even bigger nightmare for this anemic offense is that they face Pittsburgh, which has the top-ranked defense in the league. They hold opponents to an astounding 13.0 points per game, while limiting the opposition to 256.9 yards per game. Their rushing defense is incredible in the 3-4 formation and pins runners to the ground for 77.7 yards per game.
The Steelers weakness is at cornerback, where Ike Taylor and Deshea Townsend remain a vulnerable tag team. Helping them, however, is Troy Polamalu, one of the best playmakers at safety in the game (if not the best). Bet safely on Pittsburgh keeping Willis under wraps, while McNair fails to get any semblance of a passing game going.
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Baltimore Defense
Pittsburgh’s defense shuts teams down, and their vaunted rushing attack keep the clock squarely in their control. Fast Willie Parker has asserted himself as an elite back in this league after going undrafted coming out of UNC. He leads a rushing attack that ranks second in the league and amasses 159.1 yards per game.
Ben Roethlisberger has shaken the awful, and unfair, title of game manager this season. With 1,566 yards, 15 touchdowns and only six picks, Big Ben is becoming a serious threat. With Hines Ward completely recovered from a knee injury, Santonio Holmes going off this season and Heath Miller maturing in to a deadly red zone threat, this offense finally has the balance in both passing and rushing that it has desperately needed to be effective.
Baltimore’s defensive numbers are misleading. They rank second in yards allowed, giving up a mere 268.0 yards, and have held teams to an average of 17.0 points per game. But their victories have come over the Cardinals, Jets, 49ers and the woeful Rams. They have been pantsed by teams with decent offenses, including Cincinnati, Cleveland and Buffalo.
Although they have a reputation of being a stout defensive team, the smart betting investor will realize that the Ravens defense isn’t what it used to be. And it has no chance of stopping Fast Willie and Big Ben from taking over this game.
NFL Betting Trends
-Baltimore is 1-6 ATS this season
-Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS this season
-Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in last six when playing Pittsburgh
-Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in last 7 home games
Final Verdict
The two score spread is tough to gauge because Pittsburgh has lost to two very bad teams. However, Arizona had a bevy of inside information from Pittsburgh’s former offensive coordinator, while Denver threw everything they had at them and only won by three points. The Ravens, even with the familiarity they have with the Steelers, have never faced Mike Tomlin as a head coach.
But the football betting faithful should rest assured in their Steelers. Baltimore’s offense is absurdly bad and their defense is a shadow of its former self despite their reputation. In a game where Pittsburgh has plenty to lose, they will come up huge against Baltimore as they try to gain some ground in the AFC North.
NFL Free Pick: Baltimore 13 Pittsburgh 27
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