posted September 4, 2007 at 15:59 in NFL Betting Trends

Pre-season Re-cap: Jags Make Big Decision, Patriots Lose Key Player - - Also, Opening Game NFL Betting Pick.

The biggest news which came out of the past weekend is the fact that the Jacksonville Jaguars will either try to trade Byron Leftwich, last year’s starter at quarterback, or cut him. Wow. It usually doesn’t happen in the NFL where a starter is cut in the last week of the pre-season, but Coach Jack Del Rio had his reasons.

The pressure now falls onto the shoulders of David Garrard. From the Jag’s point-of-view, Garrard and Leftwich aren’t much different - other then the fact they can pay Garrard much less than they were paying Leftwich. From a bettors point-of-view, the quarterback change doesn’t appear to mean much either which would mean the Jags NFL odds should remain similar with or without Leftwich.

The Jaguars are a run first team and their schedule is such that they should do extremely well based on current trends. Their defense is solid. This was represented in the betting line as after Del Rio made the announcement, the line didn’t change at all. It has remained Jags – 6.5 and I suspect it will stay close to that, maybe a half point up or down, all the way up to game time on Sunday.

In other news, Wade Wilson, quarterback’s coach for the Dallas Cowboys was suspended, like Rodney Harrison, safety for the New England Patriots, for using an illegal substance. That’s right, Wilson is a coach. Harrison is a player. Neither team should be affected. However, from a betting stand-point, the Patriots have a lot more to lose without Harrison than the Cowboys without Wilson. It will be interesting to see how well the Patriots do on Sunday in their opener, as a football betting line favorite, against the New York Jets. They’re on the road and the Jets have improved somewhat on the defensive side of the ball.

Of course, the season officially starts on Thursday when the New Orleans Saints travel to meet the Indianapolis Colts.

Indianapolis Colts - 6 vs. New Orleans Saints +6

Every single trend imaginable has the Colts absolutely dominating the Saints in this contest. The Saints are a team who scores often and Indianapolis is not only unbeatable when they get into a scoring fest, they tend to destroy NFL betting lines. The Colts are at home, where they routinely cover spreads. They have the best quarterback and wide receiver tandem in football in Peyton Manning and Marivn Harrison. They are the defending Super Bowl champions.

Yet, as all NFL bettors know, at times trends don’t hold. This can be for a number of reasons. The reason that the trends won’t hold in this game is because of a very significant injury to the Indianapolis Colts front four.

Without the presence of Booger McFarland, his injury is more significant than most NFL fans may realize, the Colt’s defense may have trouble containing Deuce McCallister.

That’s right, not Reggie Bush who will get plenty of action, but Deuce McCallister. McCallister, the “thunder” in the Saints’ thunder and lightning backfield, should see the ball often. That will allow the Saints to control the clock, keeping the Colts offense off the field.

By the fourth quarter, expect the Saints to have tired out the Colts defense. That means more McCallister, more short passes to Eric Johnston, the Saints’ tight end, more swing passes to Reggie Bush, more overall strategic game-calling by Saints’ coach Sean Payton.

The NFL betting line is – 6. Before playing the Saints at that line, take a look at the money-line. This is a perfect game to catch the Colts against a team that can beat them. It would be nice to start the NFL season with a +250 winner!

Until next week, good luck!

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