Posted on 11/3/2007 10:13:52 PM

Football Betting: Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs

By Charles Jay

BetUS NFL betting odds: Kansas City -2, Total: 37

NOTABLE STATS: Green Bay 71.3 rushing yards per game, Kansas City 82.1

KEY NFL BETTING TREND: Kansas City is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 home games

(For more useful stats and trends, visit our special Matchup Tool)

The Green Bay Packers (6-1 SU, 5-1-1 ATS), coming off a big Monday night overtime win at Denver, try to move to 7-1 as they visit Arrowhead Stadium (grass) to face the Kansas City Chiefs (4-3 SU, 4-2-1 ATS). Game time is 1 PM ET.

Here are some football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* GREEN BAY is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

* GREEN BAY has won and covered its last five road games

* GREEN BAY has played four OVERS in its last six road games

* KC has covered the last five meetings

* KC has played 13 UNDERS in its last 17 games

* KC is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 home games

We're still scratching our heads over that Brett Favre performance on Monday, as the Packer quarterback went long on the very first play from scrimmage in the overtime period to beat the Denver Broncos. Of course, it might have been a little more difficult for Favre to pull off that play if not for the fact that his running game got established a little against Denver. Ryan Grant, a New York Giants castoff from Notre Dame who has all of a sudden found a home among the ground attack wasteland that is Lambeau Field these days, went over the 100-yard mark and may now be the answer in the backfield. That would be good news for Favre, for sure.

But the Kansas City Chiefs are a little stingier against opposing rushing games than Denver, which was last in the league in that category. So Green Bay will have a much tougher assignment along those lines. And Jared Allen is one of the league leaders in sacking the quarterback, with eight, and so K.C. also provides something Denver didn't do very much of. You can't disparage the job any of Green Bay's receivers has done, but it gets more difficult when there is someone in your face.

What is also difficult for the Packers is the turnaround. Anyone who saw Favre's press conference after the game is Denver could observe what an emotionally-gratifying win this was. Now the Packers, coming off that draining effort on a Monday night, have to travel once again, this time on a short week and to Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs have had the bye week for extra preparation. The Chiefs, at 4-3, see themselves very much in the playoff race, so they won't lack for effort. And the technical numbers for them are strong, having covered 12 of their last 17 at home. Green Bay has the divisional opponent in Minnesota next week that can help them widen their lead in the NFC North, so this is the proverbial "sandwich" game.

No, Kansas City does not have the kind of offense that is going to "run and hide" from opponents. But they can play things close to the vest and make things uncomfortable for Favre. And don't forget that they have the MAJOR edge at the running back position with Larry Johnson. We will take the points with the Chiefs, a 2-point favorite on the BetUS NFL football betting line.

JAY'S PLAY: KANSAS CITY *** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)