Posted on
10/13/2007 11:41:03 PM
NFL Betting Trends: New England Patriots (-6.5) at Dallas Cowboys (+6.5)
By Eric Williams
The New England Patriots, (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, 4-1 O/U) routed the Cleveland Browns 34-17 last week to keep their record perfect at 5-0 heading into this contest, which should reveal a lot about both teams even at this early point in the regular season. New England is ranked second in both, overall offense and defense.
The Dallas Cowboys, (5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 O/U) are also 5-0 but earned their most recent victory on a last-second field goal after quarterback Tony Romo committed six turnovers. The Cowboys own the league’s top-ranked and are ranked eighth in overall defense.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my NFL Betting Free Picks:
Key Patriots Trends
The Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.
The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in October.
Key Cowboys Trends
The Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games on Grass.
The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 4-0 in Patriots last four games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
The Over is 4-0 in Patriots last four games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
The Over is 6-1-1 in Cowboys last eight games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
The Over is 6-1 in Cowboys last seven games in October.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
There are no trends available.
Analysis: While this game could very well turn out to be shootout, I expect a low-scoring affair between these teams and one that could be decided by a last-second field goal. In the end, I say take the Cowboys and the points at home to cover the 6.5-point spread.
NFL Free Picks: Patriots 28 Cowboys 24
04:15 PM EST NFL Odds
New England Patriots -6½ -120
Dallas Cowboys +6½ EV
Over 53 -110 Under 53 -110
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