Posted on 1/16/2008 2:17:27 PM

Football Wagering - Major Drama Expected Sunday in NFL Conference Championships

By D.S. Williamson

This Sunday is one of my favorite days of the year - - the NFL Conference Championships. Often times the games turn out better than what we will get in the Super Bowl. I’m not sure if that’s the case this year with Brett Favre looking like he just woke up from one of those special Thai massages every time he takes the field.

The Brady guy isn’t bad either. I mean, I don’t remember the last time we could, potentially, have two great quarterbacks in a Super Bowl XLII. They’ve both been there before and I think that they both have excellent shots to make it to the big game again.

Think of the drama involving that! The Stetson model versus the old man? I can’t wait actually, but both games don’t set up, in my eyes, as blow-outs. So, I’ve got to hold back a bit before proclaiming that it will definitely happen.

One of the dumbest things I heard last week was Dan Deirdof saying that the New England Patriots must have been ecstatic because of the “physical” game that the San Diego Chargers had to play versus the Indianapolis Colts.

First, football is always a physical game. Second, there is no way that LaDanian Tomlinson misses this weekend’s game. So, it doesn’t matter if it was physical or not since LT is the reason that the Chargers will or will not upset the Pats. Finally, and most importantly, I doubt the Patriots care what sort of game that the Colts and Chargers played.

In fact I don’t think the Patriots cared who they would have to play in the AFC Championship. The Patriots are the Patriots, Dan, they don’t care about what you do. You should be caring about what they do.

The Chargers do, but I’m not sure it will be enough. As an NFL bettor, though, it is my obligation to look at both games from the point-of-view of the point spread. Who wins straight-up in the end doesn’t mean much if you’ve lost a grand on them, right?

Here goes!

New York Giants (+ 7) vs. Green Bay Packers (- 7) = That Giants’ record of going 8 and 1 straight-up on the road this year sure is daunting. Of course, playing in that comfy, good weather-blessed stadium in Dallas and then traveling to one of the coldest, most lifeless stretches in America are two very different things. What will matter in this game is whether or not the G-Men can get pressure on Favre. The Pack has all ready proven that they can play in the snow. That makes them ultra-tough in here. If the G-Men can get to Favre, they can keep it close. If not, then this will be over quickly. Eli won’t be able to bring back the Giants’ from a deficit. So, expect the Giants to take their chances early. They have to get a lead in this game before the half or Favre, Ryan Grant, and that Packer defense will absolutely kill them in the second. The Packers are peaking. The Giants are a good team and have had a great year, but I don’t see them losing by less than 10 points in this one.

Free Pick: Green Bay to cover.

San Diego Chargers (+ 14) vs. New England Patriots (- 14) = The trend here is that the Patriots haven’t covered in their last four games. That’s not good. They had every chance to cover the spread against the Jags the other night, but failed to do so. Don’t discount emotion in this game. Also, Shawn Merriman and Shaun Phillips are as fast as any two linebackers that the Pats had to play this year. Sure, the Pats blew them out but that was very early in the season. I believe LT when he says that this is a different Chargers’ team. The Chargers will keep thing to a comfortable 14 to 10 points, but the Patriots will win this game. The Chargers might want to go to Marty ball in this thing only because I have absolutely no faith in jerk Phillip Rivers. Dude, if players from the other team don’t like you because you talk too much trash, you’re talking too much trash! Take it easy out there, man! I don’t want to have to hate you, but the Frat Boy act, if it is an act, has to cease. You’re bringing back flashbacks of that Ryan Leaf kid and that’s not a good thing, Philip. In any case I suspect that the Pats will win but they won’t cover. That’s been the trend lately. Who am I to argue?

Free Pick: San Diego to beat the spread.

Until next week, good luck!

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