posted November 22, 2007 at 14:06 in NFL Betting Trends
Football Betting – Colts to Stumble in Atlanta?
Surely when the NFL betting experts looked at this game, they shuddered. It is a tough thing to make a road team a 14-point favorite, especially when that team is 1-2 in its last three games and could easily be 0-3. Peyton Manning of the Super Bowl champion Colts looks very shaky now that he has fewer than three or four superstar receivers to throw to, and injuries along the offensive line have messed with the timing and precision of the running game, making things even worse.
Indianapolis Colts –14 at Atlanta Falcons +14
Still, nothing can seem as bad as what the Falcons have gone through this season. With their franchise sitting on a jail cell for dog-fighting, gambling and drugs (Vick is not in jail on drug charges. He is in jail early because he’ll be able to smoke pot in prison much easier than on the outside, where he is constantly tested), the Falcons have to rely on the very questionable passing skills of either Joey Harrington or Byron Leftwich. Neither of these two will ever strike fear in an opposing defense, at least on an NFL level.
The Colts could struggle again this week, as the falcons have a fast front four that will be able to take advantage of the aforementioned struggles taking place in the Colts’ O-line. Joseph Addai is a great runner when he has a good blocker and a line that can move in his direction at the right spots, but he is no power runner, and that is what the Colts need right now, until they get healthier.
With Marvin Harrison out, the Chiefs last week doubled coverage on the only other legitimate downfield threat on the Colts’ roster, Reggie Wayne. By taking Wayne out, the Falcons will be able to throw in a bit of Cover-2 style bumping at the line of the other receivers. If they can pull this off, the Colts are going to have another tough day. Remember, they were two touchdown favorites last week, too, at home, yet barely beat the Chiefs on a field goal with seconds to play.
When football betting is this tough, one must look for the one player that is going to make the difference and decide how they feel that player is going to do in the game in question. In this game, that player is Dallas Clark. With Harrison out, Clark is the go-to guy behind Wayne. Last week, he returned from an injury and he did not look like his old self, except for the passes he dropped. While Clark is extremely tough and gifted, he does have a habit of dropping balls, probably because he is almost always about to get smoked. The Falcons could very well light him up on Thanksgiving.
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