posted September 29, 2007 at 21:52 in NFL Betting Trends
NFL Wagering – Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Detroit Lions (+3.5)
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The Bears (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U) have finally made the long-overdue switch from the inconsistent Rex Grossman to former Pro Bowler, veteran, Brian Griese, who will look to provide the spark to get Chicago’s 30th-ranked offense out of neutral and into any forward-moving gear. The Bears’ stellar defense has suffered from being on the field so much in the early going, dropping to 16th overall.
The Detroit Lions (2-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U) lost their first game of the young season last week, getting routed by the Philadelphia Eagles 56-21 in a matchup that exposed and embarrassed their mediocre defense.
The Lions have been very solid offensively all season in offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s high-octane offense which is ranked third overall in the league. Defensively, Detroit is ranked 30th in the league.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my NFL Wagering Free Picks:
Key Bears Trends
The Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Bears are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. NFC North.
The Bears are 18-44-1 ATS in their last 63 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Key Lions Trends
The Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games on Field Turf.
The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog.
The Lions are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 4-0 in Bears last four games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
The Under is 5-0 in Bears last five games on Field Turf.
The Over is 5-1 in Lions last six games following a S.U. loss.
The Over is 4-1 in Lions last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Detroit.
The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Analysis: I know the Lions have put a significant amount of points on the board in each of their three games this season, but the Lions will be facing a Bears team that should be approaching psychotic levels of frustration at this point. Take the Bears to win outright and cover the spread with Griese at the helm, though this game could be closer than most people expect.
NFL Free Picks: Bears 24 Lions 17
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