posted January 17, 2008 at 11:14 in NFL Free Picks

With the NFL betting total on this Sunday’s AFC Championship Game set at 47.5 points, those of us who bet on football should be taking a very close look at what seems to be a relatively small total to bet on. The reason for this total is the public perception that the injuries to the Chargers are going to very much limit their ability to score a bunch of points against the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Fair enough, that kind of thinking is only natural when such stars as running back LaDainian Tomlinson, quarterback Philip Rivers and tight end Antonio Gates all look like they will not be at the top of their game. But is it really going to slow San Diego down that much?

San Diego Chargers +14 at New England Patriots –14: Total 47.5

During San Diego’s eight game winning streak that has taken them from the butt of the “no one wants the AFC West” jokes all the way to the AFC Championship game, they have averaged 28.5 points per contest. Their defense has stiffened up as well, allowing opponents to score just over 13 points per contest in the same span. Although books will take that into account when tallying what they publish as the betting total for this game, one should very much keep in mind that the only playoff team that San Diego has played in the past eight games was the one they won in Indianapolis last week against the Colts.

So, we know they can score against teams that can’t make the playoffs and they can hold those teams to less than two touchdowns, but what about against New England. San Diego’s one meaningful drive with Billy Volek and Michael Turner at the helm produced a winning touchdown in the fourth quarter, against the defending Super Bowl champions. on their own turf, no less. And how many points can the Pats put up on that Chargers defense?

AFC Championship Game: Sunday, January 20 at 3 p.m. EST

Well, the Patriots, over this regular season for the ages, played seven games against NFL teams that made this postseason, more than any other team in the playoffs. In doing so, they managed to put up an astounding average of 37.8 points in each of those games. Five of their past ten games have been against playoff teams and the Patriots scored an average of 33.1 points per game in those ten games, while holding their foes to just 17.4.

Looking at these numbers, and taking into account the fact that public perception will have forced the hand of the bookmakers on this one, as a NFL football betting pro, you should know that this total of 47.5 points is deflated. Don’t let it do the same to your bankroll.

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