Posted on
4/21/2008 4:48:28 PM
NFL Pro Football Betting – Will Niners Strike Gold With Martz?
By Charles Jay
BetUS Sportsbook has just revealed superb online football betting opportunities in its 2008 odds to win the AFC and NFC titles, as well as the Super Bowl, and the Cowboys, Packers and Giants look to be the clear front-runners. But our preference today is to look at one team that is going through what it hopes will be a transition that will make all the difference.
Let's start things out by listing the odds to win the NFC Championship, as they appear in BetUS Sportsbook:
BetUS NFL Futures Odds
To win the NFC Championship
Dallas Cowboys +300
Green Bay Packers +550
New York Giants +500
New Orleans Saints +900
Philadelphia Eagles +1000
Seattle Seahawks +1200
Arizona Cardinals +1800
Carolina Panthers +2000
Detroit Lions +2200
Chicago Bears +1600
San Francisco 49ers +2500
Saint Louis Rams +3300
Atlanta Falcons +6500
The 2007 San Francisco 49ers (25/1 at BetUS Sportsbook) started out fast, posting wins over Arizona and St. Louis in their first two games. Then things went downhill - quickly. Eight straight losses later, all playoff hopes were down the tubes. And after a 5-11 finish, coach Mike Nolan was fortunate to hold onto his job. He sought help for his moribund offense in the off-season, hiring Mike Martz, who was with the Detroit Lions last year, as offensive coordinator.
Martz has his work cut out for him. This was the worst offense in the league last season, gaining less than 200 yards on seven different occasions. And that isn't what they expected when they selected Alex Smith with the top pick in the 2005 NFL draft. Even when healthy, Smith hasn't given this team much, and last year, his third, he completed 49% of his passes for two TD's and four interceptions. In the off-season he had shoulder surgery.
When Smith was sidelined, journeyman Shawn Hill stepped in, and the team showed some signs of life in the season's waning moments. But the Niners are not going to ditch Smith, not after all the money they have invested in him. That presents an immediate problem for Martz, because Smith doesn't read defenses well enough, and may continue a pattern of non-production, but is locked in anyway.
Smith will need people to throw to, and the wide receiver position was a major problem last season. Darrell Jackson, who came on board from Seattle, did not pan out and was released. Martz and Nolan have tried to address the situation by signing Isaac Bruce, a former Martz favorite from St. Louis, and Bryant Johnson, who caught 46 passes at Arizona last year but has only nine career TD's in three seasons. More talent will be needed there, and perhaps they will look for it in the draft. Vernon Davis, the prize prospect at tight end, had 52 receptions a year ago, but tight ends aren't so prominent in Martz's offense.
One player who may benefit from the new system is Frank Gore, who topped 1000 yards again in what was not his best season, but who could become a dynamic force in the running and receiving game if defenses had someone else to worry about.
The offensive line will be a priority in the draft as well, because pass protection is a must. And Larry Allen, the future Hall of Famer, may not be around. Joe Staley, a first-round choice at tackle last year, could be shifted from the right side to the left, but there are holes.
Aside from Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis may have been the best rookie in the league last year. Willis, a linebacker from ole Miss, led the NFL with 174 tackles. But this team needs a pass rush after the retirement of Bryant Young. Opposing quarterbacks had too much time to throw, and the San Francisco safeties, who did a good enough job in run support, were vulnerable to getting beat on longer routes.
With the Niners though, it's mostly about offense, or the lack of it. Martz has some glitter left over from his days in St. Louis, but this is more than putting exceptional talent together in the right scheme. It's about stretching defenses with speed and rout-running ability, with a QB who can absorb it all and attack downfield. Sure, Kurt Warner hit paydirt with the Rams in Martz' system. but Jon Kitna threw a lot of interceptions and was valuable only to fantasy players. Which one will Alex Smith emulate? So far, it looks like he won't approach the numbers of either. This is a big personnel job, and it's going to take more than a year to put the pieces in place. Expect growing pains with the first year of the Nolan/Martz partnership, and only minimal improvement. In terms of value, the Niners don't match teams like Tampa Bay (14/1), Minnesota (16/1) or Seattle (12/1), who are also in double digits.
JAY'S PREDICTION FOR 2008:
San Francisco 49ers: 6-10
The 2007 NFL betting season is almost here in full force! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The BetUS sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join BetUS today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLIII and beyond!
(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)