Posted on 10/20/2007 1:17:46 PM

NFL Free Picks 2007 – Chiefs and Raiders Rivalry Renewed

By Tim Furious

Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-3)

Sunday, October 21st --- McAfee Coliseum, Oakland --- 4:05pm EST

Opening football line: Oakland -3 (38.5)

Preview

Larry Johnson will have his work cut out for him as he powers the Chiefs running game against the Oakland Raiders, a team that he has single handedly demolished in the past. This is an epic rivalry, but the Chiefs have slapped the Raiders around eight games in a row. Can the football mind of Lane Kiffen challenge history and pull out a win?

Kansas City Offense vs. Oakland Defense

The efficient Damon Huard finally showed up last week against Cincinnati throwing for 264 yards and two scores. This freed up Larry Johnson to carry the ball for 119 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries. Last season, the Oakland defense was in the top-10, but this year they simply do not play like the ball-hungry vultures they were last season.

Oakland ranks twenty-fourth in overall defense, giving up a sad 25.6 points. Their rush defense ranks twenty-eighth in the NFL and gets slaughtered for 144.8 yards per game. That is not a good sign with Larry Johnson storming in to the building on Sunday.

The Chiefs will rely heavily on their run offense to wear down Oakland’s front-seven as Larry Johnson takes this game on his shoulders. Damon Huard won’t have to play on an epic level, but he will be able to rifle the ball to Tony Gonzalez, who matches up supremely well against the linebackers in Oakland. Bet on ToGo to pad his lead on the all-time touchdown list for tight-ends.

Oakland Offense vs. Kansas City Defense

Lane Kiffen loves to pound the rock, and will have to do so if the Raiders have any hope of success. The betting bandwagon got overbooked after Daunte Culpepper exploded on the stat sheet against Miami, but it was obvious in last week’s test against the Chargers that Daunte can not take over games. Oakland manages 161.8 yards per game through the air.

Daunte threw two key picks against the Chargers, and the Chiefs are very difficult to throw against. The Chiefs secondary may have given up 320 yards to Carson Palmer last week, but they were able to pick him off twice. Kansas City is seventh in pass defense, and Culpepper simply lacks the ability to pick apart a secondary.

The runners in Oakland are not game breakers, but LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas can move the pile and shuffle the chains down the field. The problem for Oakland will be keeping up with the Chiefs scoring. This is a bad matchup for Oakland, and they will have to take to the skies in hopes of keeping up with LJ and Huard. If that happens, the KC secondary will be picking interceptions out of the clouds all afternoon.

NFL Betting Trends

-Total has gone UNDER in 12 of last 16 games for Kansas City

-Oakland is 2-3 ATS, Kansas City is 3-2-1 ATS

-Kansas City is 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings with Oakland

-Oakland is 1-5 SU in last 6 games at home

Final Verdict

Kiffen is doing some great things in Oakland. He plays to his players strengths and is greedy defensively. But this matchup is simply not a good one for Oakland, regardless of their history against Kansas City. The Chiefs defense is superior to Oakland, and Larry Johnson, for whatever reason, just loves to devastate Oakland. Last season he had 289 yards and three touchdowns in two games against the Raiders.

Some may want to lean towards Kiffen and the Raiders, because the Chiefs have been two-faced and untrustworthy this season. But the Chiefs are worthy of your betting investment in this matchup. It is simply not the right time to buy in on Oakland yet. Especially with LJ in the house.

NFL Free Pick: Kansas City 24 Oakland 20

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