Posted on 9/21/2007 9:09:18 PM

NFL Online Betting - San Diego Chargers (-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (+6)

By Marc Reichertz

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The San Diego Chargers make the 4 ½ hour flight to Green Bay to take on the Packers this Sunday after an embarrassing 38-14 loss against the AFC rival New England Patriots. Under first-year head coach Norv Turner, the Chargers offense has failed to click and seemed downright out of sync in their first two games. Philip Rivers has committed five turnovers while All-Universe running back LaDainian Tomlinson appears frighteningly mortal averaging a scanty 1.9 yards a carry. A team that led the league in first-half scoring last season with 13.9 points in the opening two quarters has yet to score a point in the first half this season. The Week 3 line shifted 2 points this week as the football betting public seems convinced the Chargers will bounce back in Week 3.

The surprising 2-0 Packers are coming off a decisive win against the Giants on the road that saw 17-year veteran Brett Favre earn the all-time record for NFL wins. Despite the fact Favre is surrounded by an inexperienced core of rookies on offense, the Packers managed to put 35 points on the board as he completed 29 of 38 passes for 286 yards and three touchdowns. This week the Packers are matched up against a much tougher Chargers defense that has the ability to shut down the run and make things very uncomfortable for Favre in the pocket.

The key for the Packers come Sunday will be the offensive line's ability to generate yards on the ground with their zone running game (something they have failed to do consistently) and more importantly to pass protect for their quarterback. Chargers defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell will unleash a variety of blitzes using talented linebackers Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips to disrupt Favre's timing and force ill-advised throws into coverage. One of the most difficult adjustments for rookies is picking up the blitz so both Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn will have their hands full trying to neutralize the oncoming blitz. Wynn showed some burst last week finding the end zone twice but the Packers are still only averaging 64.5 rushing yards a game.

The Chargers secondary was shredded by Tom Brady and the Patriots last week but it will be difficult for the Packers to duplicate this blueprint. When Favre gets time to look downfield he will likely targeting a depleted or hobbled receiving core. Tight end Bubba Franks hasn't practiced all week because of a knee, Greg Jennings is yet to make an appearance this season and we can add promising rookie James Jones to the list after he tweaked his hamstring in practice Thursday. That leaves Donald Driver has potentially the only legitimate receiving threat.

The Chargers offense revolves around LaDainian Tomlinson and despite its shortcomings so far, it will scheme to get him the ball in many guises. It takes more than one defender to get the job done but Packers' linebacker Nick Barnett will shadow L.T. in much the same way he narrowed his sights on Brian Westbrook in Week 1. Safety Atari Bigby linebackers A.J. Hawk and Brady Poppinga will also share the responsibility.

The one real bright spot for the Chargers has been the play of tight end Antonio Gates whose 16 receptions in the first two games of 2007 leads all NFL tight ends and is tied for second-most among all players. Even though the Packers know the ball is going his way, Gates combination of speed and athleticism creates mismatches with linebackers and safeties all over the field. Quarterback Philip Rivers needs to find a way to get the ball to his receivers - namely Vincent Jackson, Craig Davis and Malcom Floyd who have failed to register a touchdown. If Chargers right tackle Shane Olivea can't play with his hurt back, Packers' end Cullen Jenkins will have a easy route to the quarterback. In the Packers' secondary, Charles Woodsen is questionable with a hip injury, but the Packers have depth at corner.

Green Bay are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. This should be a game dictated by defenses and likely decided by a couple big plays and timely turnovers. The Packers defense should play tough enough to keep this one under six points.

NFL Betting Free Pick: Packers At +6

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