posted September 28, 2007 at 17:28 in NFL Betting Trends

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Each week the boo birds surround San Diego Coach Norv Turner in greater numbers. There is no shame in losing to the New England Patriots. But, allowing what amounted to a last second touchdown versus the Green Bay Packers cannot be tolerated.

Can the loss against the Packers be blamed on Coach Norv Turner? Yes, and no. The truth about the San Diego Chargers is that not only must blame be assigned to Norv Turner, but it must also be assigned to defensive coach Ron Rivera who doesn’t have the same talent in the defensive backfield in San Diego as he did in Chicago.

The coaching change, and how it has affected the Chargers, is what makes the NFL betting opportunity this weekend versus the Kansas City Chiefs so interesting.

The Kansas City Chiefs just don’t appear to be a very good team. They can’t score, they can’t block, they can’t tackle. However, unlike the Chargers, Herm Edwards does get his team to play with fire and that has allowed them to stick around in games until at least the fourth quarter.

The big question is whether or not the traditional trend regarding these two teams is going to hold water this weekend.

Trend - - The underdog is 8-3-1 against the spread in the last 12 meetings between the San Diego Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs.

That’s a pretty powerful trend and before we think that we should throw away the trend because of the coaching changes in San Diego, remember that Coach Norv Turner last coached at Oakland, another AFC West team. This means that Coach Norv Turner and Coach Herm Edwards have some understanding of the other coach’s tendencies.

That makes sense and goes a long way in explaining why San Diego doesn’t seem like the same San Diego team or why the underdog tends to do well when two AFC teams clash. They know each other well and, in close games, the underdog almost always beats the spread.

The BetUS NFL betting line in this game is Chargers -13 against the spread. That’s two touchdowns. Are the Chargers ready to beat the Chiefs by two touchdowns?

The answer is decidedly no. The reason is that the San Diego Chargers are facing a bad team in the Kansas City Chiefs and that the San Diego Chargers may have reversed the trend of the underdog going 8-3-1 against the spread if they were being coached by someone a bit more clever than Norv Turner, but they aren’t. Norv Turner has proven that he will not change his game planning even if threatened with being fired.

Coach Norv Turner is calling the shots in San Diego. This is a classic bet the coach game. Herm Edwards is just a better manager than Norv Turner. That means the trend in this game should hold and that the Kansas City Chiefs will beat the spread this weekend.

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