Posted on
10/20/2007 10:53:20 AM
NFL Free Picks Steelers At Broncos
By Tim Furious
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) vs. Denver Broncos (2-3)
Sunday, October 21st --- Invesco Field, Denver --- 8:15pm EST
Opening football line: Pittsburgh -3.5 (39.5)
Preview
The last time we saw the Broncos, they were getting hammered by the Chargers. Has Mike Shanahan done the necessary homework to gear his team for a playoff run over the bye week? Or will the stifling defense of Pittsburgh curb any enthusiasm the Denver betting faithful have left?
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Denver Defense
Let’s see here. Denver has the worst rushing defense in the league with 187.6 rushing yards against per game. Pittsburgh is the second best rushing team in the league with 167.0 yards gained on the ground. Fast Willie Parker is averaging 4.2 yards per carry, and will punch it in effortlessly against Denver’s shockingly bad defense.
Throwing against the Broncos will always be difficult because of the Bly-Lynch-Bailey trio that stalks the second layer. Ben Roethlisberger has been airing the ball out in Mike Tomlin’s new offense, but the Steelers will return to their roots and play it safe in this one. There is no sense in letting the Broncos back in to this game with careless picks against a greedy secondary when they can decimate Denver with their bulldozing running game.
Denver Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
Jay Cutler is doing what he can, but he is struggling without Javon Walker. Brandon Marshall has 362 yards on the season, along with two scores, but simply does not strike fear in to teams. Cutler will have very few opportunities to take advantage of this defense, and if he fails to capitalize on these chances, it will be lights out for Denver at home.
The running game will run in to the reborn Steel Curtain. Denver is eighth in the league with 138.8 yards per game, but Pittsburgh ranks fourth in the league. They have clamped down the opposition to 72.6 yards per game on the ground. Travis Henry simply does not possess the skill necessary to break open the game for Denver, and Cutler lacks the weapons.
NFL Betting Trends
-Denver is 0-5 ATS, Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS
-Pittsburgh is 2-3 SU in their last five games against Denver
-Total has gone OVER in 8 of last 10 home games in Denver
-Denver is 3-1-1 O/U
Final Verdict
The oddsmakers made this a tight line because both teams are coming off their bye weeks, and the belief is that Mike Shanahan has whipped his team in to shape after a 41-3 drubbing at the hands of the San Diego Chargers in Week 5. But the Broncos simply don’t have the cutlery to sit at the table with the Steelers.
Willie Parker will tear this front-seven to shreds as he gets a chance to display his speed. With Hines Ward returning for Pittsburgh, it will be a tough day at the office for the home dog Denver Broncos. No upset here, folks. Bet on the Steelers as the road favorites to run amuck in Denver this weekend.
NFL Free Pick: Pittsburgh 31 Denver 17
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