Posted on 10/22/2007 6:31:28 PM

NFL Free Picks: Indianapolis Colts (6-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)

By Robby Maddux

Tonight, the Indianapolis Colts (-3½ -125) take their 5-0 SU (straight up) and 3-2 ATS (against the spread) record into Jacksonville to play the Jaguars (+3½ +105) who are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, and we have the NFL betting communities winning selection.

The Colts and Jaguars met twice last year. In the first meeting, Indianapolis won at home 21-14 as the 6½-point favorites. In the most recent matchup, Jacksonville delighted the home folks with a cashing 44-17 romp as the 1-point underdogs.

Jacksonville enters this game riding a four-game SU winning streak, but none of its victories have been against teams with winning records. This matchup is far tougher than anything Jacksonville has faced this season.

The Jaguars are coming off a 37-17 win over Houston last Sunday as the 6½-point home favorites for their third consecutive money-making victory.

Jacksonville will attempt to get the job done this evening with a heavy dose of a ground game that's collecting 154.8 yards per game and the NFL's best defense that's surrendering just 11.6 points.

The Jaguars rushing attack has been outstanding lately, averaging 195.3 yards over the last three games.

Jaguars' running back Maurice Jones-Drew has ran for 207 yards and three touchdowns on 21 carries over the last two weeks, and he had a career-high 166 rushing yards with two touchdowns in last year's rout of the Colts.

Overall, Jacksonville is scoring 20 points per game and collecting 355.2 yards on offense.

The Jaguars are coming off a 37-17 win over Houston last Sunday as the 6½-point home favorites for their third consecutive money-making victory.

- Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

- Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

- Jaguars are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The Colts will attempt to shutdown the Jaguar's ground game with a rushing defense that's allowing 105.4 yards per game.

Overall, the Indianapolis defense has been solid, giving up 278.2 yards and 17.6 points per game to rank among the league's top seven in both categories.

Offensively, Indianapolis ranks second in the league with a stout 32.8 points per game led by Peyton Manning, who is the owner of a 108.6 quarter back rating which is third best in the NFL.

The Colts are coming off a bye a week. In Week 5, Indianapolis downed Tampa Bay 33-14 at home as the 9-point favorites for back-to-back covers.

- Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.

- Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 7.

- Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in October.

- Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

- Colts are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

- Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.

- Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

NFL odds display the Colts as the 3½-point favorites with a total of 46.

- Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.

- Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.

- Jaguars are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog.

- Jaguars are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.

- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Jacksonville.

Analyst: Indianapolis is considered to be battling New England for the title as NFL's best team. Following yesterday's dominating 49-28 victory by the Patriots over the winless Miami Dolphins, the Colts need an impressive win tonight to keep pace with New England on primetime.

The Jaguars defense will keep them in it early, but their offense that's scoring 20 points per game won't be able to do enough to help get the win. Just too much offense by the Colts in this one!

NFL Free Picks: Indianapolis 34 Jacksonville 17

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