Posted on
10/22/2007 4:54:18 PM
NFL Free Picks: Indianapolis Colts (6-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)
By Tim Furious
Preview
Yesterday was perhaps the craziest weekend in the NFL this season. Things will get even messier when the Colts travel to Jacksonville to take on the division rival Jaguars. The Colts will be out to preserve their undefeated season, and revenge a 44-17 manhandling handed to them by the Jags last season.
Indianapolis Colts (6-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)
Monday, October 22nd --- Jacksonville Municipal, Jacksonville --- 8:30pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Indianapolis -3 (45.5)
Indianapolis Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense
No matter who is on the field, Peyton Manning is finding ways to bring the best out of this offense. The Colts average 402.8 yards and 32.8 points per game. The smart betting investor will also note that Manning is 8-0 and has 22 touchdown passes on Monday Night Football.
Despite getting off to a slow start, the Jags have reasserted their physical dominance on defense. They are ranked 10th overall, giving up 304.8 yards per game defensively, while surrendering an eye-popping 11.6 points per game. The key to this game for the Jags will be to use their massive defensive line to overwhelm the steady offensive line of the Colts. That should shut down the Colts and hold them well below their average of 142.0 yards per game.
That makes this a game between the greedy and physical secondary of the Jaguars and Peyton Manning. At this point in the season, Manning is silently slicing through opponents. Manning practically took over the games against Tampa Bay and Denver, causing both teams to wave the white flag by the third quarter. The Jaguars simply do not have what it takes to get in to the head of the confident Manning.
Jacksonville Offense vs. Indianapolis Defense
It took some time, but David Garrard and the running game in Jacksonville has finally gotten going. The big boys blocking for Garrard up front are massive and can swallow up the small defensive line of Indy, but that also makes them vulnerable to speed. Not to take too much away from Jacksonville’s recent success, but they beat up on a busted
Houston Texans team, the misguided
Kansas City Chiefs and a listless Denver team.
Because Peyton Manning can dismantle any secondary and light up the scoreboard, the job for the defensive becomes much more single minded. They rank fifth in the league with only 278.2 yards against per game, but their rushing game is vulnerable. Look for the big offensive line to outmuscle the finesse first Colts in the trenches and make way for Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jags average 154.8 yards per game on the ground.
The fact remains, however, that Garrard has not even come close to proving that he can win a game from behind. This season, the Jaguars have had the good fortune on squatting on leads. That is not a luxury they will enjoy against the Colts. If this becomes a game where Garrard will have to fire bombs to his no-name wide-receiver corps, it will become a pick-fest for the Colts secondary. The Colts have caused 10 takeaways this season, second best in the AFC.
NFL Betting Trends
-Indianapolis and Jacksonville are both 3-2 ATS this season
-Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
-total has gone OVER in 5 of last 6 meetings between the two in Jacksonville
-Indianapolis is 7-3 SU in their last 10 against Jacksonville
Final Verdict
The Jags might be a tempting home dog because of their overwhelming size and physical nature, but the Colts are a calmly confident team that hardly ever gets rattled. Peyton Manning loves the prime time lights and will continue his undefeated streak on Monday Night Football. The fact remains that the Colts and Patriots are miles ahead of every other team in the NFL. Bet on the Colts with a small spread that is begging you to take the home dogs.
NFL Free Pick: Indianapolis 34 Jacksonville 24
> > Check Week 8 Odds Here
The 2007 NFL betting season is here in full force! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The BetUS sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join BetUS today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLII and beyond!