Up to NFL Betting Trends

posted July 14, 2008 at 16:14 in NFL Betting Trends

Last year, as all BetUS Sportsbook pro football betting customers know, the New England Patriots finished the regular season with a 16-0 record. Obviously, since the expansion of the schedule, no one has done something like that. In a story earlier this week we explored whether New England could possibly do it again, and it was concluded (and perhaps agreed upon with the readership) that it was most likely too much to ask.

But exactly how well can the Patriots do?

Yes, EXACTLY. That what this BetUS prop is all about.

BetUS NFL Football Futures Betting Odds

NE Patriots Exact Record

16 ~ 0: +1500

15 ~ 1: +250

14 ~ 2: +275

13 ~ 3: +450

12 ~ 4: +450

11 ~ 5: +700

10 ~ 6: +1500

9 ~ 7: +3000

8 ~ 8: +5000

9 or more losses: +5000

Wow - how about an over/under on what date those people who went after the 50/1 in nine or more losses were eliminated from contention? Seriously, folks, let's examine what the schedule has to offer the Pats in 2008:

09/07/2008 vs Kansas City

09/14/2008 at NY Jets

09/21/2008 vs Miami

10/05/2008 at San Francisco

10/12/2008 at San Diego

10/20/2008 vs Denver

10/26/2008 vs St. Louis

11/02/2008 at Indianapolis

11/09/2008 vs Buffalo

11/13/2008 vs NY Jets

11/23/2008 at Miami

11/30/2008 vs Pittsburgh

12/07/2008 at Seattle

12/14/2008 at Oakland

12/21/2008 vs Arizona

12/28/2008 at Buffalo

Although I would be the first to admit that there are no "automatics" in the NFL, I honestly can't see the Patriots losing any of their games against AFC East rivals. At the most, they could lose one, either to the Jets or Bills. Buffalo is a team I am expecting to contend, but New England was just a horrific matchup for them last year. And "Spygate" might ensure sound beatings for Eric Mangini for quite a while.

That leaves the out-of-division schedule, and from the top -- Kansas City and San Francisco, two teams that are far from being well-rounded, have almost no chance at all, whether they’re playing in their backyard or not. Denver would REALLY have to get lucky, and Jay Cutler would have to have a career game. But the Broncos are also far from being a finished product. I am expecting St. Louis to be much improved, but they will not be at the level where they are going to come to Foxboro and chalk up a road win.

As for Oakland and Arizona, these are teams with some offensive weapons (Darren McFadden, for example, is a significant addition for the Raiders), but they are led by inexperienced quarterbacks and are still boys playing against men.

If there are games that are "up in the air," those would be at San Diego, at Indianapolis, at Seattle and at home against Pittsburgh. I do not see the Steelers coming into Gillette Stadium and winning. They're just not good enough at this point, and likely won't be when November 30 comes around. Seattle is always tough on their home field, and they'll put up a fight. New England will probably go into this game as a favorite of five points or more, and though they may not be able to cover, they should come away with a win.

Will the Pats be swept by the Chargers and Colts? Remember that Indianapolis had the Pats on the ropes last year, and had to endure some tough luck to get beat. San Diego was trounced early in Foxboro (38-14) before they got their collective act together, then was competitive in the AFC title game before going down to a 21-12 defeat. But that game was actually winnable for the Chargers, which has to give them some encouragement coming into this season.

Then there is the thing that is the biggest variable of all - the "early clinch" factor. Let's say New England loses a game or two, but has clinched the division and home field advantage early, and goes into the last week or two in a position where it is best to rest its players. That's when you're going to see people like Matt Cassel and Matt Gutierrez at quarterback, Kyle Eckel at running back, all kinds of subs on defense. Well, you know the drill. The bottom line is that winning or losing won't matter at that point. Now imagine a team like Buffalo, in the season's final week, or Arizona the week before, and they're fighting to stay in wild card contention. In that scenario, anything can happen.

I don't know if there is necessarily a "safe" play here, but I think it's a safe assumption that another unbeaten season is not in the offing. And if that;s the case, those games late in the season could be up for grabs. The first priority for Bill Belichick will be positioning his team to win the VERY LAST game of the season, which it didn't do last season. If I were going to pick one of these options, I would grab 13-3 at +450 in the BetUS NFL football futures betting odds.

The 2008 NFL betting season is around the corner! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The BetUS sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join BetUS today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLIII and beyond!

(Charles Jay of www.ebookies.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)