Posted on 10/20/2007 12:30:52 PM

NFL Football Betting - Jets At Bengals

By Charles Jay

BetUS NFL betting odds: Cincinnati -6.5, Total: 47

NOTABLE STAT: Cincinnati is allowing 31.2 points per game, 4.9 yards per rush

KEY NFL BETTING TREND: Cincinnati 9-15-2 ATS as a home favorite

Two teams who have had disappointing seasons, to say the least, meet up this Sunday when the New York Jets (1-5 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) travel to Paul Brown Stadium to play the Cincinnati Bengals (1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS), in a game scheduled for 4:05 PM ET. On the BetUS NFL betting line, the Bengals are a 6.5-point home favorite, with a posted total of 47 points.

The last time these teams met was in the 2004 season opener when the Jets, as a five-point home favorite, beat the Bengals 31-24. The Jets have scored 13 straight-up (SU) wins in 18 meetings with Cincinnati.

The Jets are not getting it done on either side of the ball. Chad Pennington had another rough game against the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, when the Jets lost 16-9 as a 4.5-point home dog. Pennington went 11 for 21, passing for only 128 yards and an interception, and failed to lead any touchdown drives. In fact, the Jets, who have not crossed the goal line in the last six quarters, kicked three field goals, on drives of just 55, 34 and five yards. Pennington is hitting his passes at a 68% rate, but he is not productive. What did work last week was Thomas Jones in the backfield. Jones gained 130 yards on 24 carries against Philly, and that looms important, if he can have that kind of game again on Sunday.

You see, Cincinnati can not stop the run. The Bengals' defense, which has been missing linebackers for quite some time, is surrendering 4.9 yards a carry, and that had its effect in last week's 27-20 loss (as a 2.5-point favorite) at Kansas City, when Larry Johnson was able to bust loose for 119 rushing yards. That enabled Damon Huard of the Chiefs to throw for 264 yards and two TD's. The Jets are hoping that they can achieve the same residual effect for Pennington.

The Jets have an almost invisible pass rush (6 sacks) and don't make many big plays on defense (just 4 INT's), so Cincinnati should move the ball through the air. Carson Palmer (1491 yards, 7.34 yards an attempt) has one of the league top tandems in Chad Johnson (36 catches, 578 yds., 16.1 ypr) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (47 for 505, 7 TD's), but no one else has emerged as any kid of a receiving threat whatsoever. Palmer is also on pace to throw 25 interceptions, which would be way over his '06 total. Running back Rudi Johnson had only eight yards in limited duty last week, and while he was healthy he was not overpowering.

Let's take a quick look at a few trends:

* CIN is 1-9 ATS against non-division opponents in October

* CIN is 1-7 SU in its last eight games

* CIN is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games

The Bengals indeed should be healthier this week, but there are other problems. They have converted just one of 18 third downs the last two games. They are the league's worst in covering kickoffs, which means Leon Washington has a chance to get the Jets very good field position. And the Jets should be able to run it well enough to get Pennington into some more favorable passing situations. Without a full complement of linebackers, Cincy won't be able to blitz continually or effectively. All of this having been said, it is tough to lay this many points with a team that allows over 31 points a game.

JAY'S PLAY: NY JETS

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)