Posted on
10/20/2007 12:20:21 PM
NFL Football Betting - San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants
By Charles Jay
BetUS NFL betting odds: Giants -9, Total: 39
NOTABLE STAT: Niners - 203 offensive yards and 12.6 points per game
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: Niners have played 10 of last 14 under the total
The San Francisco 49ers (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) come off the bye week hoping to capture some offensive spark as they go to East Rutherford, NJ to take on the New York Giants (4-2 SU & ATS). Game time is 1 PM ET. In the football betting odds at BetUS, the Giants are listed as a 9-point favorite, with the over/under posted at 39 points. The Giants will be seeking just the third SU win in their last eight home games.
The last time these teams played was back in the 2005 season. The Giants, who were a 10.5-point favorite, went to the Bay Area and scored a 24-6 win, falling under the total of 42 as well. These two do not play often, but the Giants have covered their last two meetings with the 49ers.
San Francisco won its first two games of the season, then lost three in a row. It does not take a genius to figure out what their problem is - the Niners just can't move the football. They have averaged just 203 yards per game in offense, and have been outgained by opponents to the tune of 135 yards per contest. Quarterback Alex Smith is returning to action after a separated shoulder; Smith, the #1 choice in the 2005 draft, has had a rough time of it. In 84 attempts this season, he's only thrown one interception, but he's also been sacked ten times, tossed just one TD pass and completed only 51% of his attempts. His backup, Trent Dilfer, was only 46% with three INT's and eight sacks. Either way, the Giants are going to be able to put plenty of pressure on the passer, as their furious rush has done a lot of business (21 sacks).
San Francisco's Frank Gore has been a tremendous running back, but it is too easy for opposing defenses to stack the line against him without an effective downfield passing attack. As a result, Gore has averaged only 3.6 yards a carry, and his team has converted on only 24% of third down situations. Tight end Vernon Davis, between injuries, has not been a factor (just eight catches). And Darrell Jackson, who was acquired from Seattle, is the only receiver who merits attention. When you have gained more than 200 yards only once in five games, you are putting a lot of pressure on your defense. The Niners stop unit has done a good job, considering it has spent a lot of time on the field (over 34 minutes a game, in fact).
The Giants got off to a different start than San Francisco, losing their first two, but have roared back with four straight wins. Eli Manning (61%, 1379 yards) makes mistakes (8 INT's) but he is also looking more like a leader. And Plaxico Burress (30 catches for 507 yds., 8 TD's) has not only become his go-to target, he is a genuine All-Pro candidate. The running game, which wasn't going to replace Tiki Barber, has nonetheless avoided being a liability, as it averages 129 ypg and 4.6 yards a carry. Derrick Ward has been a pleasant surprise, and Brandon Jacobs came off the injured list strong. Even Reuben Droughns had a big run last Monday night at Atlanta, where the Giants won 31-10, covering as a 4.5-point favorite.
For San Francisco, which has won just six of its last 25 games SU on the road, the big challenge is in being able to trade points. No team can be as non-offensive as they are and hope to compete with a team that can not only play with a balanced attack, but also defend the pass (Giants allowing only 56.4% completions) and rush the quarterback. Unless Niner cornerback Nate Clements, who is drawing raves, is able to literally shut down Burress, this has the potential to become a rather non-competitive game.
JAY'S PLAY: NY GIANTS
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)