posted July 10, 2008 at 13:34 in NFL Articles

If you’re a faithful follower of one of football’s doormat clubs, the NFL betting odds don’t give you many good chances to support your team. This time of year is different; this is when the totals for regular-season victories are made available. Atlanta Falcons fans might not have a prayer about making the playoffs, but how about winning five games?

The Falcons hit rock-bottom as a franchise last year with QB Michael Vick going to prison and coach Bobby Petrino abandoning ship to return to the college ranks. The betting public will often kick a team when it’s down; the over/under on Atlanta wins was 4.5 at press time, with the over priced at –150. This is a pessimistic appraisal of a team that went 4-12 (8-8 against the spread) during last year’s upheaval.

There are several reasons to believe the Falcons are capable of winning five games. Strength of schedule is in their favor; their 2008 opponents combined to go 120-136 in 2007. Playing in the NFC South helps, as the only winning team in the division was Tampa Bay at 9-7. According to the statheads at Football Outsiders, Atlanta was good enough in this environment to earn 5.5 Estimated Wins last season.

The Falcons have blown up that dysfunctional team, letting veteran underperforming players go and starting fresh with head coach Mike Smith (formerly the defensive co-ordinator in Jacksonville) and offensive co-ordinator Mike Mularkey. Both men have enjoyed success in the past, most notably Smith, whose Jaguars were among the best defensive teams in the league during his five-year tenure.

First-round draft pick Matt Ryan is projected to be the new starting QB. His welcome to the NFL shouldn’t be as rough as the betting public might be expecting; Ryan will frequently hand the ball off to running backs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, and the awful offensive line has its own first-round jewel in Sam Baker. The former USC Trojan brings talent and leadership to a unit that had very little of either in 2007.

If the Falcons have gone through too much overhaul to make you feel comfortable about their NFL odds, there are programs like the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens who are trying to rebound from injury-filled 2007 campaigns. The total for each of these two clubs is six wins, with the over priced at –120 for Chiefs and even money for the Ravens.

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