Posted on
4/11/2008 12:49:01 PM
NFL Football Betting - Evaluating Draft Odds – QB’s, RB’s, CB’s
By Charles Jay
Drafting players into the NFL is an inexact science, to be sure. So why not join the sports betting community and bet on the BetUS Sportsbook draft odds? A while back an NFL assistant coach told me, "Let me put the whole thing into context. When we bring young players into camp, we have them every day in classroom sessions. They take one drill after another, they run one play after another, we put them in four pre-season games to evaluate them, all of it under our strict supervision. We watch detailed videotape of their practices and game play. We have them basically every minute of the day for over a month, and even more of that because they've gone through mini-camp. Still, when it comes time to make the final cuts, and we have to keep one player over another, there are still a lot of decisions that are almost impossible to make.
So you can't tell me it's not a whole lot harder when we have to make a decision on who to draft between many players, when they haven't really been under our control for very much time, if at all."
To help us navigate our way through the BetUS NFL Draft props, we have enlisted the help of a pro - a scout who has been in the NFL for over two decades and who has agreed to be of assistance on the condition of anonymity (because of our status as a betting site).
Last time out we looked at linemen; this time we focus on the "skill" players - quarterbacks, running backs, and speed-burning corners.
BetUS NFL Draft Odds
(Draft takes place on April 26)
WHO WILL BE DRAFTED FIRST?
DARREN McFADDEN (RB, ARKANSAS) -160
MATT RYAN (QB, BOSTON COLLEGE) +130
The Scout: "Darren McFadden isn't just - by far - the best player in this draft, I think he might be the best running back to come out of college in many years. And that includes Adrian Peterson last season. This guy is a bona fide game-changer, a difference maker on any team. He's got outstanding speed, and is great in the open field. On any play, he's a threat to go coast-to-coast. He's definitely worth the #1 pick in the draft, because how often are you going to find a player like this? But some teams won't feel the need to draft a running back if they've put a lot of money into other running backs. That means some of the teams in the early part of the draft may pass on him.
Ryan makes every throw, which is important. He has real good size and is very sharp; he'll take to the mental aspect of the pro game well, which not many young quarterbacks do. He did not have a lot of help from the people around him, which makes it more impressive. Still, there are a lot of things he didn't see out there. He threw some costly interceptions. He can benefit from pro coaching, because he seems to be able to pick up things relatively quickly. On balance, he can have a good career, but he's not really what I would call a franchise guy. That puts him in the first round, but it doesn't make him someone who is ideal for the top six or seven picks."
JAY'S PLAY: McFADDEN (-160) ***
-- It would indeed surprise me if Ryan went before McFadden. But team needs could conceivably change that dynamic. When you look at Miami, St. Louis and Atlanta, who have the top three picks, none of them would seem to have running back as a pressing need. Oakland (or whoever trades for their pick) and even the Jets are obviously a different story. But Miami and Atlanta are in a fix for quarterbacks. The question then becomes, would a Bill Parcells, for example, want to put the ball in the hands of a rookie QB right away when (1) he has shied from rookies at that position in the past, (2) there are other things they can address more effectively and (3) a trade may seem attractive to get multiple bodies in there, since this team needs so much in the way of personnel? I can see a team trading up to #1 to get McFadden. But will they draft in the top five for Ryan? That's debatable. I thought it was interesting that McFadden's 40-time at the combine was so much better than teammate Felix Jones.
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BetUS NFL Draft Odds
(Draft takes place on April 26)
WHO WILL BE DRAFTED FIRST?
BRIAN BROHM (QB, LOUISVILLE) -140
JOE FLACCO (QB, DELAWARE) +100
The Scout: "He has a pretty quick release and has an understanding of how to 'manage' a football game. But I have severe doubts about Brohm. First of all, he's a system quarterback, and how many guys out of Louisville have come into the pros and done anything? I don't think he can throw the ball that well downfield or in the deep out. And he has a hard time handling a pass rush. He just can't get out of his own way. So how the hell is he going to handle the blitzes in the NFL, coming from all directions? This guy is definitely not a first-round talent.
Flacco has a superior arm and doesn't seem to be bothered nearly as much by the rush. He can really handle pressure. He sees the field a lot better than Brohm. And he can move out there. Don't get me wrong; he's not going to be running with the football. He is a pocket passer. But he can certainly throw the ball on the run as a device to avoid the pressure from pass rushers. He can go in the late first or early second round, depending on who needs what."
JAY'S PLAY: FLACCO (+100) ***
-- I will agree with my man. I don’t think I've seen anything from Brohm that is particularly mind-blowing. To me, he's just a guy throwing four-yard passes, and defenses in the NFL can limit that kind of guy. Flacco, from all indications, is a player who can attack the defense in a way Brohm is not capable of. And at 6'6", he brings better size to the equation.
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BetUS NFL Draft Odds
(Draft takes place on April 26)
WHO WILL BE DRAFTED FIRST?
DOMINIQUE RODGERS-CROMARTIE (CB, TENNESSEE STATE) -120
LEODIS McKELVIN (CB, TROY) -120
The Scout: "Rodgers-Cromartie is flying up the board, but I really don't understand why. He is a great athlete, and was very impressive at the Senior Bowl. His speed is great for this level. He has been coming on, and developed some momentum in the scouting combine. But he is not a hitter. And in the NFL, you had better be such a superior cover corner, like Deion Sanders, if you want to get away with shying away from contact. He is going to have to become tougher. I would not draft him with my first pick.
McKelvin is a terrific player, better than the kid from Tennessee State. He not only has great speed, but he's a lot more physical and will cut down backs who run to the outside. He is also the type who will be very aggressive off the line of scrimmage in terms of bumping his man and taking him out of the route. He is extremely quick and has the ability to adjust. He can also help some NFL team right away with his ability to return punts. He's a very solid first-round player. I happen to like Mike Jenkins of South Florida better than either of these guys."
JAY'S PLAY: McKELVIN (-120) ***
-- Every year scouts fall in love with a couple of small-college players. Rodgers-Cromartie is one of those examples. Then they start to look for flaws. And sometimes the ether wears off before draft day. Maybe that's the case here.
Bet the NFL Draft at BetUS sportsbook, where we have the best selection of NFL Draft propositions available. And check out the futures/props section, for our futures on the NFL, NBA, Major League Baseball and more! At BetUS Sportsbook, you may not be a #1 pick, but you could become a #1 picker!
(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com is opposed to the draft, but only as it regards the military. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)