Posted on 8/14/2007 7:39:16 PM

NFL Betting - Will Michael Vick Get To Play

By Charles Jay

Michael Vick has a federal dogfighting conspiracy charge hanging over his head. One of the co-defendants in the case, Tony Taylor, has already cut a deal with the authorities (gee, did that take very long?). Obviously no one's looking to nail anyone but Vick, so one would figure the odds are stacked against him.

And speaking of odds, we'll get to the actual odds on his trial at a later time. The more time-pressing issue is how long he will stay out of action, if not for the entire year.

As columnist Mark Bradley astutely pointed out in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Thursday, although Vick has been asked not to report to training camp (he's still getting paid), he has not been officially suspended by either the NFL or the Atlanta Falcons. If the league doesn't sit him down for the season, the team can only suspend him for four games, as per the NFL's collective bargaining agreement with the Players Association. Apparently owner Arthur Blank is fully prepared to do that, if the NFL does not exercise its authority in this area.

If it's just a team suspension, the NFL would seemingly have to act by October 1. With Vick's trial scheduled for November 26, it wouldn't be shocking if they didn't rush to a decision right now. However, speculation is that the NFL will take the Falcons off the hook by imposing a season-long ban, at least according to football writer John Czarnecki of FoxSports.

The NFL is justified if they blow him out. Sponsors like Nike, Upper Deck and Rawlings have done that to Vick already. Believe me when I tell you, they have read the indictment. This doesn't appear to be a case of mistaken identity. Furthermore, we know how the NFL feels about gambling, and it can't be overlooked that Vick may well have bankrolled a gambling enterprise in conjunction with the dogfighting ring. That won’t help him.

Hey, don't get me wrong - as far as the legal system is concerned, one is innocent until proven guilty. But the aforementioned entities, who have contractual relationships with Vick that include clauses related to behavior, don't have to play by those same rules. They don't have to try and convict him. If Vick wants to recover damages later, he has every right to do so.

As for the court of public opinion, well, you know how that goes.

I don't think there's anything wrong with a suspension, pending an investigation and the ensuing trial. Vick has big bucks and a high-priced attorney, Billy Martin, who when he's not fighting George Steinbrenner is very good at getting people off (there I go again- I'm a bad narrator, aren't I?).

Here's the question: should the Falcons let him play, even if the NFL gives him the go-ahead?

There is an answer to that question, and it is "no."

I admit that I haven't read everything that has been published about this.

But if I were Blank, I wouldn't want Michael Vick back under any circumstances. Want to know why? Because inasmuch as he appears to have participated in those deplorable things, including hanging, drowning and electrocuting these fighting dogs when they had outlived their usefulness, that makes him a sociopath - textbook version.

Go ahead and read some psychology books on the subject. Sociopaths, when they are kids, have a tendency to put some cruel hurt onto animals, and often it does not change as they progress to adulthood.

Sociopaths, especially at the quarterback position, do not lead NFL teams to Super Bowl titles. They're a little too self-abosrbed for that. They don't care about anyone but themselves, and that's not who you want to stake your franchise on.

I realize that Atlanta is stuck with Joey Harrington, Chris Redman and D.J. Shockley under center. And they missed out on making a deal with Daunte Culpepper. But with Vick, the future was destined to be very limited.

THE CHARLES JAY LINE

Michael Vick will throw a pass in the NFL this season (regular season)--15/1

Will Michael Vick do any of the following before 12/31/10

Throw a Pass in a regular season NFL game 2/1

Be banned for life from the NFL 1/2

Become an official PETA spokesmen 200/1

Run for public office 20/1

Publish a book "What if I've done it 2?" 100/1

Be sentenced to jail time 1/4

Flip Burgers at Mc's 1/3

Win a super bowl 30/1

Who will be the Falcons' backup QB for the season's first game?

* D.J. Shockley -160

* Chris Redman +130

* Joey Harrington +1000

* Michael Vick +3000

* Someone else +1000

What will be the outcome of Michael Vick's trial before 12/31/09?

He will be convicted of all counts 5/1

He will be convicted of some counts 1/4

He will found not guilty on all counts 3/1

A mistrial will be declared 20/1

Trial will still be pending 30/1

Other outcome 15/1

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Charles Jay of TotalAction.com is a freelance writer and oddsmaker who contributes with gusto to the BetUS.com Locker Room