posted October 6, 2007 at 20:10 in NFL Free Picks
NFL Betting Trends – Detroit Lions (+3.5) at Washington Redskins (-3.5)
The Detroit Lions, (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U) have been one of the biggest surprises in the league this season and would have been a perfect 4-0 if they hadn’t laid down against the mediocre Philadelphia Eagles a couple of weeks back.
At any rate, the Lions have the league’s fourth-ranked offense, averaging a whopping 312.8 passing yards per game and another 74.8 yards on the ground each contest. As good as Detroit’s offense has been in the early going, the team’s defense has been equally atrocious in earning their 29th overall ranking.
The Washington Redskins, (2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U) are coming off a bye week after suffering their first defeat of the season in Week 3, falling to the New York Giants 24-10.
The Redskins are a middle-of-the-pack team on both sides of the ball, ranking 15th in overall offense and 14th in overall defense.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my NFL Betting Free Picks:
Key Lions Trends
The Lions are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Lions are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games on Field Turf.
The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Week Five.
Key Redskins Trends
The Redskins are 9-2 ATS in their last eleven games following a bye week.
The Redskins are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Redskins are 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games in Week Five.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 5-1 in Lions last six games overall.
The Over is 5-1 in Lions last six games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Under is 4-0 in Redskins last four games on Field Turf.
The Under is 7-1 in Redskins last eight games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
The Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Analysis: While this is a game between two fairly evenly matched teams that could very well come down to last-second field goal, I like the Lions to cover the spread here if not win the game outright altogether. The Lions have more than enough firepower to outscore the Redskins if their defense doesn’t give up 56 points like they did to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. Take the Lions to cover and possibly win outright.
NFL Free Picks: Lions 28 Redskins 27
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