Posted on
12/8/2007 10:31:05 PM
NFL Wagering – Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans
By Eric Williams
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a different team this season because of the addition of veteran quarterback Jeff Garcia. However, Tampa Bay’s 27-24 victory over the New Orleans Saints last week was engineered by backup quarterback Luke McCown.
The Buccaneers, (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 5-7 O/U), should have ample motivation this week with Garcia back under center as they can clinch the NFC South with a victory or losses by New Orleans and Carolina. Tampa Bay has not had a five-game winning streak since 2002 when they captured their only Super Bowl title.
The Houston Texans, (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 6-5-1 O/U) are entering this contest coming off a 28-20 loss to the Tennessee Titans last week in which starting quarterback Matt Schaub was injured in the first quarter and left with a dislocated left shoulder that will cause him to miss this week’s contest. Backup, Sage Rosenfels went 17-of-30 for 185 yards with one touchdown and an interception as Schaub’s replacement.
In his only start this season, Rosenfels went 11-of-19 for 181 yards with one TD and one interception in a 24-17 win over the Oakland Raiders on Nov. 4. The Texans have rushed for an average of 118.4 yards in their last five games after averaging a measly 60.2 per contest in their previous five.
The Buccaneers lead the NFC in overall defense, allowing just 291.8 yards per game while ranking second in points allowed, at just 15.6 points per game.
Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends, followed by my Football Betting Free Picks:
Key Buccaneers Trends
The Buccaneers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
Key Texans Trends
The Texans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
The Texans are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers last six games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Under is 19-7 in Buccaneers last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
The Over is 5-0 in Texans last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The Over is 7-1 in Texans last eight games in December.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
There are no trends available.
Analysis: This pick is an absolute “Lock” NFL bettors. Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, behind the stellar defense – and the indomitable leadership of starting quarterback Jeff Garcia, to help the Bucs win and cover outright.
NFL Free Picks: Buccaneers -3 Points/Under 40.5 Total Points
01:00 PM EST NFL Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 -120
Houston Texans +3 EV
Over 40½ -110
Under 40½ -110
> > Check Week 14 Odds Here
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