Posted on 10/16/2007 5:30:26 PM

Football Betting: New England at Miami

By Charles Jay

BetUS NFL Betting Odds: New England -18, Total: 51

NOTABLE STAT: New England shoots you with its "38," scoring 38 points a game and 38 points three times.

KEY FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: New England has played 10 of its last 12 games over the total.

The New England Patriots look to continue their high-scoring, high-flying ways when they travel to Miami to face the Dolphins this coming Sunday, in a game scheduled for 1 PM ET on the grass at Dolphin Stadium. The Patriots are listed at -18 in the BetUS betting odds, with the total posted at 51 points.

Let's focus on that total, to see if it presents an opportunity for NFL football bettors.

First, a glance at some of the TOTALS-RELATED betting stats and trends relevant to the two teams:

* New England has scored 38 points three times, and has averaged 38 points a game on the season

* New England has played five of its six games over the posted total

* New England has also played 10 of its last 12 games over the total, dating back to last season

* New England has played five of its last seven road games over the total

* New England's games have averaged 53.6 points this season

* Miami has played four of its six games over the total this season

* Miami's games have averaged 51.6 points this season

* New England and Miami have played unders in four of their last five meetings IN Miami

There are few teams in history who have demonstrated as much offensive power as New England. The Patriots are averaging 38 points per game, and in the very telling statistic of "yards per point," they are sitting at 11.2, which is a very low figure. That means Tom Brady & Co. are being very efficient on offense, which makes sense when you see the weapons they have at their disposal. The Pats are making maximum use of all three receivers they acquired in the off-season. Randy Moss has 610 yards and eight TD catches, while Wes Welker, who came over from Miami, has 38 receptions and caught two touchdowns on Sunday. Donte Stallworth is averaging 16.6 yards a catch, the highest figure out of the bunch.

Brady is just not making many wrong moves. He's completed 72.5% of his passes, and with five touchdown passes against Dallas that brought his totals to 21 TD's and just two interceptions. He even found backup tight end Kyle Brady (no relation) for a touchdown. How explosive are the Pats? Well, with five minutes to go, they were trailing Dallas by three points. They wound up winning by three touchdowns. In the last 20 minutes they scored 27 points.

That having been said, the running game did not work well against Dallas. Sammy Morris was knocked out of the game with an injury, and with Lawrence Maroney already sitting, Kevin Faulk, primarily used as a third-down back, had to carry the load. He rushed for 50 yards. But either Morris or Maroney will almost certainly be in the lineup this week, and the Patriots offensive line has done a good job of drilling holes for both of them (Morris 4.5 ypc, Maroney 4.7 ypc).

The key factor here is that Miami has not shown very much ability to stop the run. Cleveland put together 140 rushing yards on Sunday against them, despite being without Jamal Lewis in the lineup. On the season, the Dolphins have yielded 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 168.5 yards on the ground per game. So it is likely that New England will achieve the desired offensive balance, regardless of who they have in the backfield. With only eight sacks on the season, Miami will have a real challenge putting pressure on Brady as he gets rid of the ball.

The trends may indeed point toward an OVER. Still, I am going to buck that trend in this case. First of all, let's assume that the Pats have the ability to get off to an early lead, as they have basically every time out. If the Dolphins have to play catch-up, they may not have the team to do it. Their strength is in the running attack, where Ronnie Brown has registered four straight 100-yard games. And while I don't consider him to be a stiff, I'm not all that confident that Cleo Lemon, who has now thrown three INT's in 70 attempts, can put up big numbers against this defense. Remember, the Pats surrender just 5.7 yards a passing attempt. And the opposition has gained just 78 yards a game on the ground (a bit deceptive, because they get off to early leads). This is also a rare game on grass for the Patriots, who have switched to a FieldTurf surface at home. I'm not sure Miami can put up a lot of garbage points, and that may be necessary for this to go over the number of 51 as it is posted in the BetUS football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 51 ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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The 2007 NFL betting season is here in full force! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The BetUS sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join BetUS today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLII and beyond!

(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)