Posted on 10/24/2007 11:18:33 PM

NFL Wagering: Patriots and Colts Continue Winning Ways

By D.S. Williamson

Anybody who knows anything about NFL betting has to be shocked by the incredible NFL betting lines that are being offered on New England Patriots’ games. It’s getting to the point of being shocking.

Take into account this weekend’s game versus the Washington Redskins. The Skins, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL right now, are BetUS 17.5 point underdogs versus the Patriots on the road this coming Sunday night.

That’s crazy. Sure, the Patriots have covered every single game this season, but 17.5 points? I mean, that’s the sort of line you expect to see when West Virginia faces Rutgers not when two pro-football teams go head to head in prime-time.

Wow. And, yet, the trend says that the Pats cover this weekend. I’m not sold though. Here’s the thing, the Patriots are 7 and 0 so far this season. But, 5 out of those 7 teams are pretty bad NFL teams. The New York Jets, the Buffalo Bills, and the Miami Dolphins might be the three worst teams in all of football. The Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals, although okay, aren’t exactly top-notch teams either. The San Diego Chargers have gotten better, but when they played the Patriots they were losing to everybody. Heck, two weeks after losing to the Patriots the Chargers lost to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Dallas Cowboys are a great offensive team but after watching their game versus Minnesota I have realized that there is no way the Cowboys win against a true passing team. The Cowboys can’t cover the pass. Bottom line.

This doesn’t mean the Patriots aren’t a great team, but it does mean that we might be bestowing upon them the mantle of greatest team ever and 2007 – 2008 Super Bowl winner a bit too early in the season.

To gain more perspective, let’s look at who the Indianapolis Colts have beaten so far this year. Yes, they got to trounce New Orleans and Houston, but they also had to beat the Tennessee Titans, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Denver Broncos. The Broncos, in particular, sport one of the better passing defenses in the league. The Titans and Bucs aren’t slouches, and the Jaguars, up until this past Monday, looked like they had one of the best defenses in all of football.

If anything, the Patriots and Colts are much closer in terms of talent than most NFL experts want us regular NFL bettors to believe. No worries. I can see through it.

The BetUS NFL line is New England – 17.5 against the spread versus the Washington Redskins at home. Take the Redskins because of their excellent defense and terrific running backs.

The Dallas Cowboys are off this weekend and actually that’s a good thing for them. They should have been exposed by the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday but, because Vikings’ QB, Tavarus Jackson, doesn’t understand the nuances of NFL quarterbacking yet, the Cowboys got the win. They basically put eight men in the box and bottled up sensational Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson. Let’s see the Boys do that against a real rushing and passing team like the Eagles and then we will anoint them as the best team in the NFC.

The New Orleans Saints made it two in a row by beating their most hated rivals, the Atlanta Falcons. Sure, they were supposed to beat the Falcons, but the thing that was impressive was how for the second week in a row that Saints’ D was able to put pressure on the quarterback. Reggie Bush is also impressive running through the tackles. They have another break this week when they get to face the San Francisco 49’ers. The early BetUS line is New Orleans – 3 against the spread on the road. They should cover that. Trent Dilfer, who figures to start at QB for the 49’ers, doesn’t have the legs to keep him out of trouble. Expect the Saints to blitz often in this one.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, BetUS 4 point favorites on the road versus the Bengals, should get back to their winning ways. They made a great effort getting into a game that appeared out of reach at half-time in Denver, but fell just short. The problem was the defensive play-calling. Pressure is the key against any quarterback in the NFL. If you insist on playing a Cover 2 without getting pressure on the QB from your front four, then you will lose. Just ask the New Orleans Saints! The Steelers will bring the house versus the Bengals and make Ocho Cinco prove that he really is as good as he thinks he is.

The aforementioned Denver Broncos stay home and take on the Green Bay Packers. Not sold on the Broncos pass D after they gave up so many yards to Ben Rothelisberger. I like Brett Favre to find some holes in that defense and beat the BetUS – 3 against the spread in this game.

Detroit versus Chicago, again, and this time I think Detroit wastes no time and runs the score up against the Bears. Yes, I really believe it. The Bears had to do everything humanly possible in order to win versus the Eagles. The Lion’s defense actually played better versus the Buccaneers than they have in a very long time. Maybe, the Lions found out what they needed to do on defense with their players. The BetUS line is Lions + 5 on the road versus the Bears. Take the Lions.

I’ll have a Friday write-up regarding my top NFL pick of the week. Until then, good luck!

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