posted October 10, 2007 at 18:29 in NFL Articles

Here is another of those football lines that sharp NFL bettors love to see and jump on.

Washington Redskins +3 @ Green Bay Packers –3

The Packers were favored by more than three points when this line first came out. But, even though the NFL betting public is doing the Lambeau Leap and are all over Brett Favre and his team on the day the NFL’s all-time touchdown leader will also become the NFL’s all-time interception leader, the bookies are moving the line in favor of the Redskins.

The same thing as is happening with the Patriots at Cowboys game is happening here. The books set the line, knowing full well that the public would jump on one side – the favorite. When they did and the money started pouring in on the favored team, instead of doing what they would do if everything else were equal and make the favorite more of a favorite to even the betting, the books are actually encouraging even more money to come in on the faviorite by lowering the number.

This kind of seemingly backwards logic is only done when the books know something the public does not. In general, there is no way a book would purposely put themselves in a position where they thought there was much of a chance to be wrong on a game where the money was mostly on one side. Normally they would try to balance the action. That is what bookies do.

These two games this week are prime examples of why you, the NFL betting public, should never be fooled into thinking that NFL lines are set to what oddsmakers believe is going to be the final outcome.

This week you have two games, then, where the books are luring in an unsuspecting public with lines that make no economic sense for them if they did not have some extra info. Now you have the knowledge to hit them where it hurts.

Take the Skins at +3 before they move the line even further, and you might even want to go so far as to parlay that wager with a bet on the Cowboys to cover against the Patriots at home in Texas.

Consider your football betting skills sharpened.

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