Posted on
10/12/2007 7:44:10 PM
NFL Week 6 Free Picks
By Tim Furious
St. Louis Rams (0-5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
Sunday, October 14th --- M&T Bank Stadium --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Baltimore -10 (37.5)
The Rams are quite possible the worst team in the NFL. They can’t run. They can’t throw. They can’t play defense. They are running an offense that is comprised of backups aside from Torry Holt. They are the 27th ranked offense with 287.4 total yards per game and 14.0 points on average.
Sadly, despite their winning record, Baltimore is not much better. Last weekend’s matchup was a glaring example. They doubled the yardage of the Niners last weekend and still only managed to win 9-7 against Trent Dilfer. The Ravens throw way too much considering they have a human truck in Willis McGahee who averages 4.5 yards per game and is third in total yards.
Baltimore continues to get easy, winnable matchups but do not forget that they got absolutely stomped by the Cleveland Browns and have yet to win a game by more than seven points. Smart bettors shouldn’t be sold on this Baltimore team. St. Louis gets the win with the spread, while Baltimore wins the game straight up.
NFL Free Pick: St. Louis 13 Baltimore 20
Miami Dolphins (0-5) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-3)
Sunday, October 14th --- Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Cleveland -5 (43.5)
You cannot win in the NFL with no offensive line. The Miami Dolphins are proving that week in and week out. Meanwhile, the feisty Browns are marching along quietly and oddsmakers are slowly catching up with them. Even in the 34-17 loss to New England, the Browns played well and Derek Anderson played with poise and precision against a nasty defense.
The Dolphins stink. There is no other way to write it. Well there is, but the censors will only let me get away with so much. This Browns team is much better than a lot of people realize and have had a stiff schedule so far. They accumulate the eighth most offensive yards with 348.6 yards per game and score 25.2 points per game, good enough for seventh in the entire NFL.
The Cleveland Browns will win this game in a squash and the wise betting investor should keep an eye on these underdogs to make the playoffs. Think that’s crazy? Well New England could very well match their unbeaten season from 1972, while the 2007 Dolphins could go winless.
NFL Free Pick: Miami 7 Cleveland 17
Houston Texans (3-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
Sunday, October 14th --- Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, Jacksonville --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Jacksonville -7 (37.5)
Matt Schaub and the Texans are much better than their 3-2 ATS record indicates. Andre Johnson is still out, as is his compliment, Jacoby Jones. That makes life difficult for Schaub who has to contend with a stiff Jacksonville pass defense that only allows 178.3 passing yards a game. Last week, they held Larry Johnson to 12 yards.
Jacksonville is a strong team because they are physical on defense and big on offense. The Jags running game got its MoJo back when Maurice Jones-Drew ran for 82 yards on nine carries with a touchdown. Fred Taylor continues to be the workhorse averaging 3.2 yards per carry. The Houston Texans have a very strong rushing defense, which only gives up 91.4 yards per game. They will have to be at their best to shut down the Jags’ stealthy runners.
Houston may have won both contests against the Jags last year, but the loss of Andre Johnson and Jones will make it difficult for history to repeat itself this weekend. The Jags aren’t a stellar team, but they make very few mistakes and their defense is second overall in the NFL. Bet on the Jaguars to win against the spread as they get up early and squat on that lead for the rest of the game as they stifle the Texans offense on their home turf.
NFL Free Pick: Houston 13 Jacksonville 21
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) vs. New York Jets (1-4)
Sunday, October 14th --- Giants Stadium, New York --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Philadelphia -3 (41.5)
Honestly, it is time for the Chad Pennington Experience to shut down. He is losing games left, right and center for this team, although the defense did not play very well last weekend against the Giants. Chad is one or two bad plays away from picking splinters out of his backside on the bench. The Jets need a dose of the future, which means handing the reigns to Kellen Clements.
Unfortunately, that is not happening, and the misguided Jets face the Eagles coming off a bye week with a healthy Brian Westbrook. Philadelphia is an inconsistent team at best, and a large reason for that is Donavan McNabb. The Giants proved that McNabb can not run like he used to when they sacked him an astonishing twelve times. The Philadelphia offense has suffered and averages 337.3 total yards and 21.0 points per game.
The Jets need to run the ball more often, and that means giving the ball to the man who was brought in to steady the offense. Thomas Jones has disappeared this season, but largely because Mangini refuses to give him the ball. Instead, he is trusting Chad’s weak shoulder. This has to stop and last week’s loss to the Giants had to have made a switch go off in Mangini’s head. The Jets rank 29th in the league with 77.0 rushing yards.
Philadelphia is favored on the road because the Jets lost to the Bills and Giants in back-to-back weekends. But the Eagles have not proven much and are a spotty team to invest your betting dollars. If you put some money on this game to make things interesting, go with the underdog Jets at home. There is no reason to trust the Eagles right now.
NFL Free Pick: Philadelphia 14 NYJ 17
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)
Sunday, October 14th --- Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Cincinnati -3 (41.5)
The Bengals have a chance to vanquish all the doomsayers that say this team is finished as they come off their bye week and travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the struggling Chiefs. The good news for KC is that their fifth ranked passing defense only gives up 174.4 yards per game and Cincinnati remains a one-dimensional team.
The Jaguars murdered the Chiefs at Arrowhead last week, but the Bengals defense is atrocious in comparison. Larry Johnson had 12 yards last week and you can place a very safe bet that he will improve against a 29th ranked Bengals rush defense that surrenders 152.0 yards per game. Johnson will get plenty of chances to expose the porous Bengals defense.
Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez essentially don’t have anyone that can keep up with them on the field. Togo is enjoying a great season with 338 yards and a score, while Bowe has hauled in 369 yards and three touchdowns during his Rookie of the Year campaign. With corner-back Jonathan Joseph suspended, the Chiefs aerial attack can take advantage of this defense as well.
With Rudi Johnson still nursing a hamstring injury, the Bengals will once again be forced to rifle the rock through the air to their talented wide-receiver tandem. Johnson and Hoosh will get their chances as Carson Palmer airs it out, but the KC defense has produced ten turnovers, which is tied for second in the AFC. Bet on the underdog Chiefs as Cincinnati sputters out of the gates and drives another nail in to their season’s coffin.
NFL Free Pick: Cincinnati 17 Kansas City 20
Tennessee Titans (2-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
Sunday, October 14th --- Raymond James Stadium, Tampa --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Tampa -3 (38)
After getting torn apart and shredded by Peyton Manning and the Colts, the Bucs look to right the ship against the Titans. But that will not be easy with third string Earnest Graham anchoring the running game. Jeff Garcia will be very busy against an opportunistic and hungry defense. The Bucs have also never beaten the Titans.
Both teams have been favorable against the spread, with the Titans going 3-1 ATS and the Bucs remaining 3-2 ATS. Albert Haynesworth, the cornerstone of the Titans defense, is questionable for the game with an ankle injury. That gives the Bucs some hope.
The Titans offense is predicated on the run, which is bad news for a Tampa rush defense that allows 124.0 yards on the ground. But Vince Young and the Titans offense cough up too many turnovers. The Bucs are the best team in turnover differential with +5 and lead the NFC and have had 9 takeaways this season. The Titans can not afford to make mistakes against this defense, because that is where the Bucs beat opponents.
The Bucs have had three wins against teams that have totaled three wins this season and they need to prove that they can hang with the best if they want to be treated like the top-10 team that everyone is hyping them up to be. The Titans have a big offensive line that will create difficulties for the Bucs front-seven, but Jeff Garcia and the Bucs play extremely well at home. They have outscored opponents 55-17 in Raymond James in two games. Bet on the home winning streak to continue as the Bucs edge out the Titans in week six.
NFL Free Pick: Tennessee 10 Tampa Bay 14
Washington Redskins (3-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-1)
Sunday, October 14th --- Lambeau Field, Green Bay --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Green Bay -3 (41)
It may have taken five weeks, but the league has finally learned that Green Bay cannot run the football. The Pack ranks 31st in the league with 67.6 rushing yards per game, and they won’t find much more room against the Redskins who only allow 85.5 yards per game on the ground.
Every team will cough up an ugly game, and last week the Packers hacked up a nasty hairball. Brett Favre had 322 yards and a touchdown against Chicago last week, but threw two costly interceptions. The Redskins have a very opportunistic secondary, but they take too many risks and Favre can take advantage of that.
The Redskins love to run the football and Jason Campbell is developing quickly in to a steady quarterback. But, he is not there yet and the Green Bay linebackers can hunt out Campbell when he tries to use his feet to escape to the edges. They can do the same to the Redskins vaunted rushing attack as well, although Clinton Portis will give them fits at certain times.
The Redskins are a good football team, but the Packers are a strong squad and Brett Favre usually bounces back from bad games with stellar outings. The lack of a receiving threat in Washington will make it difficult for Campbell to spearhead a victory in Lambeau as Brett Favre shows him what a real quarterback can do. The Packers betting faithful should stay firmly behind the Packers who are 4-1 ATS.
NFL Free Pick: Washington 17 Green Bay 24
Minnesota Vikings (1-3) vs. Chicago Bears (2-3)
Sunday, October 14th --- Soldier Field, Chicago --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Chicago -6 (37.5)
A win over the Packers gives rise to some hope in Chicago, but Chicago got lucky because Green Bay handed them that game last weekend. Don’t get pissy with me, Chicago fans. You know I am right.
Minnesota is in a three-loss tailspin coming out of their bye week, but all three losses have been by seven points or less. Their defense is the best against the run, giving up 62.0 yards on the ground and 266.8 yards through the air. They also give up the fifth fewest points with 14.8 against per game.
The Bears are 1-4 ATS and their few remaining faithful are probably balking at a six point spread. A huge reason for that is Cedric Benson’s inability to gain yards. The Bears average 82.6 yards per game on the ground, but Benson has looked pedestrian at best. The hopes for Chi-town linger on Brian Griese’s aging arm.
The quarterback questions in Minnesota are going to pin back the offense, but Chicago is no better. Griese has had one decent game that was preceded by the ugliest outing of any quarterback this season. Adrian Peterson is the biggest difference here. Peterson averages 5.0 yards per carry and will find room to run against a Chicago rush defense that has some holes now that Tommie Harris is out.
Bet on this game to be a hard fought, defensive struggle. With the plethora of injuries Chicago is dealing with, Minnesota might have the edge with a fully healthy defense that boasts a ball-hawking secondary and an enormously intimidating front four. The Superbowl hangover will only get worse for the Bears this weekend as the Vikings win in the upset.
NFL Free Pick: Minnesota 13 Chicago 10
Carolina Panthers (3-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (3-2)
Sunday, October 14th --- University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale --- 4:05pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Arizona -3.5 (40)
The Cardinals defense got lit up by Gus Ferrotte last week for 262 passing yards and 31 points, even though they got the win. Larry Fitzgerald is putting together some monster performances. Against the Rams he had nine catches for 136 yards and the game winning score. You can bet on a similar performance as he scorches a Carolina secondary that allows 233.6 yards per game.
Kurt Warner is a good game manager and will stand in nicely for Matt Leinart, who is out for the season with an injury. Edgerrin James will find room to run as the Carolina defense has looked soft at best. They allow 112.8 rushing yards per game.
The Cardinals are simply much better coached and have far better personnel. It’s hard to convince yourself to invest your hard earned betting dollars in either Warner or David Carr, but the Cardinals are showing a lot more promise. They are also 3-1-1 ATS and have only lost two games, both by three points. Bet safely and happily on the Cardinals as they route the Panthers easily on Sunday afternoon.
NFL Free Pick: Carolina 10 Arizona 21
Oakland Raiders (2-2) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-3)
Sunday, October 14th --- Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego --- 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Line: San Diego -10.5 (44)
One win and all of a sudden San Diego is a playoff team again? Are you kidding me? They destroyed the Denver Broncos last weekend in a 41-3 road victory and now return to the comforts of Qualcomm to take on the Raiders who are much better than everyone thinks.
After double checking the stat sheets, and ensuring that I wasn’t crazy, it looks like Oakland actually has a top-10 offense. They have scored 25.5 points per game (6th) and gained 348.3 yards per game (9th) and, astoundingly, lead the league in rushing yards per game with 194.3 (1st). That’s right. The apocalypse is coming.
Ok, maybe not. But Lane Kiffen has done an amazing job in Oakland, where he is running the hell out of the ball with Justin Fargas. Daunte Culpepper has to prove that the five touchdowns he produced against the Dolphins wasn’t out of pure vengeance, and that he will make smart throws against a vicious San Diego defense.
The main problem I have with San Diego is that Philip Rivers has been inconsistent. He has a 65.0 completion percentage and has thrown 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. It’s hard to get exited about the Chargers romp over the Broncos when the Eagles dropped 56 points on the Lions and then returned to the basement only a week later.
It is a safe bet to say that Norv Turner has no business being a head coach, and the Raiders are unfortunately familiar with their former coach’s failings. The points are too attractive in this game, although you can bet on San Diego winning this game. The Chargers are 8-2 in their last 10 straight up against the Raiders. But they have to prove that last weekend wasn’t a fluke before you can bet on them safely with a double-digit spread.
NFL Free Pick: Oakland 20 San Diego 27
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