posted October 11, 2007 at 15:55 in NFL Articles

There are few things in NFL betting that drive people crazier than not knowing who is going to start at quarterback. What’s happening in Kansas City definitely ranks up there.

According to Chiefs coach Herm Edwards, it will likely be Damon Huard under center this Sunday when Kansas City hosts the Cincinnati Bengals. “Right now, unless he has a setback, he’s going to play,” Edwards told the Associated Press on Wednesday after Huard made it through practice without his right arm falling off. Tuesday’s MRI results on Huard’s injured shoulder revealed no long-term damage.

Edwards had said earlier in the week that he had yet to decide whether to start Huard or Brodie Croyle, yet the Kansas City Star published an article under the following headline: “Chiefs’ offensive situation not ideal for Croyle’s first start.” The article went on to say Croyle would “probably” start Sunday, but the tone had already been set. Major websites picked up the report and announced that Huard had been ruled out. The NFL odds followed suit: Kansas City opened as a 3-point underdog.

Whoops. With Huard now expected to start, the Chiefs moved to 4-point puppies. And with good reason. Huard was already having a frustrating season before suffering what is now being called a “bruised shoulder” against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Although Huard was connecting on 65 percent of his passes, the results were poor: four TD throws and six interceptions, adding up to just 2.2 Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR) in passing situations.

Croyle, by comparison, has already been worth 3.7 DPAR to the Chiefs despite seeing very limited action this year. He is Kansas City’s QB of the future: a record-setter at Alabama, a third-round draft pick by the Chiefs in 2006 and one of the reasons they were willing to trade Trent Green to the Miami Dolphins. Kansas City supporters were looking forward to seeing Croyle take his shots against an ineffective and banged-up Bengals’ secondary – Cincinnati is ranked No. 24 in the league in defending No. 1 wide receivers, and rookie Dwayne Bowe from LSU (sixth among wideouts at 12.4 DPAR) is developing into just that.

Huard still has a decent chance to get the Chiefs to the pay window. He’s accurate, if not as strong a thrower as Croyle, his main task on Sunday might be to hand the ball off to Larry Johnson. The Bengals are even worse at run defense – just 26th in the league in efficiency. But Huard’s 2006 season (98.0 passer rating) is looking more and more like an anomaly. You don’t need anonymous “sources” to figure that one out.

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