posted September 28, 2007 at 19:26 in NFL Betting Trends

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Maybe a few portentous football insiders sensed the Chicago Bears post-Super Bowl hangover coming but it’s hard to completely fathom their toothless 1-2 start. They prepare to travel down the turnpike to Motor City with a banged up defense and quarterback Brian Griese at the helm after incumbent Rex Grossman was mercilessly benched. Even with a defense resembling the walking wounded of a M*A*S*H unit the football betting public appear convinced the Bears will rally this Sunday, but at the friendly confines of Ford Field, Jon Kitna and the Lions pass happy offense have the pop to keep this one close.

The Week 4 line flaunts the visiting Bears as unlikely -3 ½ favorites – a generous margin for a team that is only generating 11 points a game. The quarterback switch can’t hurt the Bears – Rex Grossman was dismal with a 45.2 passer rating punctuated by six interceptions and just one touchdown pass (coming on a two-yard toss to offensive lineman John St. Clair). Brian Griese may not possess a canon for an arm but he should be an upgrade – at least that’s what Bear’s head coach Lovie Smith is hoping.

The Lions pass defense was torched by Donovan McNabb and Kevin Curtis last week – in total relinquishing more than 500 yards through the air. Chicago may start the game conservatively but Griese will eventually look for speed merchant Bernard Berrian and to get veteran Muhsin Muhammad more involved in the offense. Tight ends Desmond Clark and rookie Greg Olsen should factor in heavily for the Bears. The Lions secondary has been dreadful giving up 278.7 yards a game and far too many big plays – they should bounce back somewhat after being humiliated against the Eagles. The Lions strength on defense is up front where nose tackle Shaun Rogers and Corey Redding will focus on neutralizing Cedric Benson and the Bears running attack.

Chicago should be able to build on their season’s sad tally of two offensive scores, but on the other side of the ball their defense is hurting. Pro-Bowl defensive tackle Tommie Harris is highly doubtful with a sprained MCL - the Bears' defense lost quite a bit of bite when Harris was out late last season. Darwin Walker will replace him at the three-technique, with Anthony Adams moving to Dusty Dvoracek’s spot (who is already on IR). With safety Mike Brown already gone for the season, this weekend the Bears could be without both their starting cornerbacks. Nathan Vashar and Charles Tillman may be unavailable to go which doesn’t bode well going up against the Lions’ league-leading passing attack which is averaging 345.3 yards a game. Mike Martz will spread the offense with plenty of multiple receiver sets to take advantage of the Bears banged up secondary - Look for Roy Williams, Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald to be the principle beneficiaries.

The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf. If quarterback Jon Kitna can still remember his name the Lions will keep this game under a field goal or win it outright.

NFL BETTING FREE PICK: LIONS AT -3.5

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