Posted on
10/19/2007 9:20:50 PM
NFL Betting Trends - New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
By Robby Maddux
The unbeaten New England Patriots (-18) are playing like a well oiled machine and have covered the spread in every game this season, as they roll into Miami to play the winless Dolphins (+18) who are a money-dropping 1-3-2 ATS (Against the Spread) in 2007.
The Patriots will be looking for their first 7-0 SU and ATS record in franchise history while the lowly Dolphins hope to avoid their first 0-7 start.
NFL odds display New England the 18-point favorites with a total of 52 in this one. Only three other times has a road team been favored by 18 points or more since 1985.
- Patriots are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Patriots are 40-18-2 ATS in their last 60 games as a favorite.
- Patriots are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a road favorite.
New England has beaten its opponents by an average of 23 points while scoring 34 points or more in every game this season and hasn’t won by fewer than 17. They have also scored in 23-of-24 quarters.
The Patriots are first in total offense (431.2 yards per game) and second in defense (256.7).
Quarterback Tom Brady is on pace to break Peyton Manning's single season passing touchdown record. Brady has 21 in six weeks and Randy Moss leads the league in receiving yards. He is the first NFL quarterback to throw at least three touchdown passes in each of the first six games of a season.
Brady is 31-8 in his career as a starter in regular-season division games, with five of those losses coming to the Dolphins. He has passed for more than 200 yards in only one of his last seven meetings with Miami.
Last year, Brady threw for 78 yards in that game, fumbled twice and was sacked four times behind an offense that totaled a season-low 189 yards in their worst performance of the 2006 season in a 21-0 loss as the -point favorites at Miami on Dec. 10.
- Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
- Patriots are 24-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Patriots are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC East.
- Patriots are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 road games.
- Patriots are 54-23-3 ATS in their last 80 games overall.
Miami is allowing opponents to convert 54 percent of their third-down attempts, which is worst in the NFL. New England's offense is fifth in that area, converting 48.5 percent on third downs.
The Dolphins are scoring 21.3 points per game and collecting 325 yards of total offense. Defensively, they are allowing 30.3 points per game (fourth worst in the NFL) and 352.2 yards.
- Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
- Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 7.
- Dolphins are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. AFC East.
- Dolphins are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 home games.
- Dolphins are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
NFL Free Picks: New England 37 Miami 24
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