Posted on
10/3/2007 7:34:09 PM
NFL Betting – Home Underdogs
By Dave Golokhov
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Those home dogs barked pretty loudly last week going 6-3 but the key was that six dogs that covered, also won outright!
There are four home dogs this week – let’s take a look at their prospects – complete with up to date NFL odds in Week 5 of NFL football betting action.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (+2)
Going to Arrowhead stadium is never an easy task, but I’m not buying into the Kansas City Chiefs quite yet. The San Diego Chargers have problems, and the Chiefs took advantage last week, but I can’t wash the memory of the Minnesota Vikings – with third-string quarterback Kelly Holcomb – nearly winning at Arrowhead two weeks ago.
The Jaguars are off a bye and their run defense has been outstanding after getting smoked in Week One. Their weakness on defense is the safety position and Chiefs’ quarterback Damon Huard doesn’t have the arm strength to exploit that. If the Chiefs are forced to be one-dimensional, they will have a tough-time winning.
Pick: Jaguars -2
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+3.5)
Talk about an ugly line. The Cardinals are fresh off an impressive home win and now all of the sudden with Kurt Warner back into the mix, there is a bit of a revenge factor going. The Cardinals are not a loser anymore; they are physical and are a tough out every week.
The Rams, on the other hand, are one of the softest teams in the league on the line of scrimmage and have been pillaged every week. Even so, for some sick reason I like the Rams at home to cover the number. I know, I’m sick…
Pick: Rams +3.5
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)
The San Francisco 49ers were supposed to be a breakout team. Fast forward to a very shaky 2-2 start along with the loss of starting quarterback Alex Smith for a prolonged period of time. With a combination like that you can kiss any playoff hopes goodbye.
Trent Dilfer takes the lead role and if last week is any indication, he’s in some trouble for this week. The good news is that the coaching staff will have a full week to prepare a better game-plan for him instead of just having it thrown up them like last week.
I question the 49ers’ game planning even before Smith went down. They’ve added some weapons (Darrell Jackson and Ashley Lelie) while tight end Vernon Davis and running back Frank Gore were supposed to take a step forward. Those paper moves have not transpired into on-field success. As a matter of fact, the offense looks even worse than last year. The Ravens defense gets a softball this week – even on the road they should take care of business.
Pick: Ravens (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills (+11.5)
The Cowboys have been the NFC’s top teams this year but count me out as one of their backers for now. For starters, no team in the NFC has racked up more penalty yards than the Cowboys. Secondly, I’m not sold on their rushing defense.
The Buffalo Bills should get a few of their injured players back this week and have actually looked respectable on offense with rookie quarterback Trent Edwards. The Cowboys are a dome team traveling outdoors and I just wouldn’t lay such a big number with a team run by a players’coach. Wade Phillips gave his team two days off this week and if they don’t come to play from the point of kickoff, they might have trouble covering such a big number on the road.
Pick: Bills +11.5
Watch the developments carefully out of both camps this week before placing your wagers on these football match-ups.