Posted on 1/17/2008 12:12:54 PM

Bet On NFL Totals - Looking ''Over'' the Numbers

By Robby Maddux

The NFL betting community invests most of their coins on sides during postseason play, but there's also money to be made on totals and many bettors will argue selecting totals are easier than picking side winners.

As we head into Sunday's conference championship games, the previous eight games have seen four play over, three under with a push included. By no means is either the over or under dominating in this year's playoffs, but which will prevail in Sunday's contests?

Beginning with the AFC's conference game at Gillette Stadium between the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers starting at 3:00pm EST, NFL odds list the total at a healthy 47½. Mainly due-in-part to a New England offense that seems to be able to score at will and ranks first in the NFL with 36.8 points per game.

New England's regular season league record of 75 touchdowns aided in their 589 points posted during 2007 which set another all-time NFL record, eclipsing the previous best of the 1998 Minnesota Vikings who posted 556.

Last week's 31-20 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars ended in a push as for the total at most books, but prior to that game the Patriots put the total over the number in eleven of their regular season contests. At home, they put five over the total.

- Over is 9-3-1 in Patriots last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

- Under is 12-5-1 in Patriots last 18 playoff games.

- Under is 9-2-1 in Patriots last 12 playoff home games.

- Over is 9-3-1 in Patriots last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.

- Over is 13-5-1 in Patriots last 19 games as a favorite.

- Over is 16-6-1 in Patriots last 23 games overall.

San Diego has also done its fare-share of scoring this year by racking up 412 points, scoring 25.5 per game which ranks fifth in the league. The Chargers own a over/under mark of 9-7-2, including their two playoff games. On the road, they've cashed for over supporters in seven of nine.

When the Patriots and Chargers meet, the over has cashed in the last four meetings. But before riding the trend, keep in mind, this game also features two rock-solid defenses ranked fourth and fifth in the league worthy of sending under players to the bank for a payday.

The Patriots' potent offense often gets over shadowed by their dazzling defense which is fourth-best in the NFL. Defensively, the Patriots are giving up just 17.1 points per game and 288.3 yards.

As for the Chargers, they boast the NFL's fifth-best defense that's surrendering just 17.8 points per game and 320.3 yards. They unit has allowed just 284 points, just ten more then New England's 274.

- Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games in January.

- Over is 4-1-1 in Chargers last 6 games as an underdog.

- Over is 5-1-1 in Chargers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Analysis: Two great offenses versus two super defenses cancel out the chances of a high-scoring game. The fourth and fifth-ranked defenses featured in this contest keep this one tight.

NFL Free Picks: UNDER 47½

When the Green Bay Packers host the New York Giants at 6:30pm EST in Sunday's second game for the NFC championship, conditions are going to be brutal with the extended forecast calling for a high of 12°F on game day, and one has to think the blustery weather could decrease scoring. But oddsmakers disagree by tagging this game with a stout total of 40½.

Brett Favre is 43-5 SU (straight up) at Green Bay when gametime temperatures are 34 degrees or colder, and we all know he can handle blustery conditions while lighting up the scoreboard, but how will Eli Manning and the Giants handle the frigid weather?

Manning has been flat-out great in his past three games and appears to be elevating his game right before our eyes. In his past three games, Manning's lowest passer rating has been the 117.1. If he can match Favre touchdown-for-touchdown this game should go over with relative ease.

The Giants' offense that posting 23.3 points per game will be tested by an underrated Green Bay defense, ranking sixth in the NFL that's giving up only 18.2 points per game.

Including last week's 42-20 spanking against the Seattle Seahawks, the Packers have now put their last eight consecutive games over the number, and own an over/under mark of 13-4-0.

- Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

- Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points.

- Over is 7-0 in Packers last 7 vs. NFC.

- Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

- Over is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games as a favorite.

Five of the Giants' last seven games have played under, as they put up an over/under regular season record of 8-8 with just two going over away from home.

- Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games in January.

- Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC.

- Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games as an underdog.

- Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 playoff games.

Analysis: Simple put: Favre thrives at home in cold weather, and Manning has a hot hand. Even with cruel elements both clubs should be able to score in the 20's.

NFL Free Picks: OVER 40½

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